黑河出山径流过程与气象要素多尺度交叉小波分析  

Multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation between runoff and climate factors in the upstream of Heihe River

作　　者：刘志方[1,2] 刘友存[1] 郝永红[1] 韩添丁[3] 崔玉环[4] 王建[3] 王中良[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津师范大学天津市水资源与水环境重点实验室,天津300387 [2]天津师范大学数学科学学院,天津300387 [3]中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所,甘肃兰州730000 [4]安徽农业大学理学院,安徽合肥230036

出　　处：《干旱区地理》2014年第6期1137-1146,共10页Arid Land Geography

基　　金：国家基础研究重大项目(973)(2013CBA01808);国家自然科学基金项目(41471001;41173096;41001006;41271035)

摘　　要：运用交叉小波对黑河上游野牛沟气象站1959-2010年和祁连气象站1957-2010年年降水（AP）与年均气温（AAT）、北极涛动指数（AOI）和莺落峡站（1944-2010年）的年均径流量（AAR）进行了多尺度分析。结果表明：AOI存在3~5 a尺度的显著周期,AAT存在3 a尺度的显著周期,AP存在3 a和4~6 a尺度的显著周期,AAR存在3 a、2.5~4 a和5 a比较显著的周期;黑河上游径流的增加主要是受＂暖湿＂气候影响;AAR与AOI、AAT呈现出3 a的负相关和3~4 a的近似负相关共振周期,AAR与AP存在2~7 a的显著性的共振周期,降水对径流的影响很大,为径流的主要补给来源;受AOI的影响,AAR在1987年发生3 a周期的＂丰-枯＂转换,受AAT的影响,AAR在1974年和1996年发生3 a周期的＂丰-枯＂转换,受AP的影响,AAR在1986年发生3 a周期的＂丰-枯＂转换。降水和气温是影响径流变化的主导因素。Wavelet analysis is a useful tool for analyzing multi-time scale and heteroseedastic time series. In this paper, the multi-time scale cross-wavelet transformation is used to study runoff and climate factors as well as their relationships in the upstream of the Heihe River. The runoff time series （ AAR ） is constituted of annual average run- off at Yingluoxia Station from 1944 to 2010, and the climate factors consist of： annual index of Arctic Oscillation （ AOI ） from 1950-2010, annual average temperature （AAT） at Yeniugou Station （1959-2010） and Qilian Station （1957-2010）, annual precipitation （AP） at Yeniugou Station （1959-2010） and Qilian Station （1957-2010）. Firstly, continuous wavelet transformation was used to analyze runoff （ AAR ） and meteorological time series （i.e. AOI, AAT and AP ）, and then we used cross-wavelet transformation and wavelet coherence to study relationships between AAR and meteorological time series （i.e. AOI, AAT and AP ） respectively. Besides, Monte Carlo meth- ods were used to assess the statistical significance against red noise backgrounds because the addition of statistical significance tests will improve the ＇quantitative nature of wavelet analysis. Results of continuous wavelet transforma- tion show that AOI has significant 3-5 a periods, AAT has a significant 3 a period, AP has relatively significant 3 a and 4-6 a periods, and AAR has three relatively significant periods which are 3 a, 2.5-4 a and 5 a. Besides, the fact that the high-energy zone of A,4R covers most of high-energy areas of AAT and AP indicates that AAR vari- ability in the upstream of the Heihe River has a positive response to variability of AAT and AP, and the runoff in- crease is mainly affected by warm and humid climate. Moreover, results of cross wavelet power spectrum and wavelet coherence show that AAR is inversely related to AOI with a 3-a resonant period, and AAR is almost negatively re- lated to AAT with 3-4 a resonant period; the fact that AAR has significa

关 键 词：交叉小波 气候变化 径流变化 非平稳时间序列 黑河 

分 类 号：TV121[水利工程—水文学及水资源]