辽宁暴雨致灾指标及灾害影响预评估  

Disaster-causing index of rainstorm and pre-assessment of disaster effect in Liaoning province

作　　者：韩秀君[1] 孙晓巍[1] 李爽[1] 王明华[1] 李广霞[1] 陈宇[1] 王桂春 

机构地区：[1]沈阳中心气象台,辽宁沈阳110166 [2]大连市金州区气象局,辽宁大连116600

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2014年第6期80-84,共5页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局关键技术集成与应用项目"灾害性天气决策服务指标及防御策略的推广应用"(CMAGJ2013M11);公益性行业(气象)科研专项经费项目"东北地区设施农业生产专业天气预报技术研究"(GYHY201206024)共同资助

摘　　要：利用1951—2012年辽宁暴雨过程及暴雨灾情资料,对辽宁暴雨灾害特征及暴雨灾害评估进行分析,并应用统计分析方法,建立暴雨致灾指标与灾害影响预评估的关系。结果表明:1951—2012年辽宁年平均暴雨日数自东南向西北逐渐减少;辽宁暴雨灾害发生频率自中部向西北逐渐增多,灾害发生频率最高的地区为辽宁西部地区,其中朝阳喀左县暴雨灾害发生频率最高,占该站暴雨总次数的73%;辽宁西部等地区暴雨灾害发生频率较高,但降水强度较小,且发生一级和二级暴雨灾害的概率低于其他地区;除辽西地区外,其他地区暴雨灾害发生频率略低,但降水强度较大。辽宁受暴雨灾害影响最大的受灾体为农作物及其设施,辽阳地区受灾频率最大,占该地区受灾过程总数的95%以上。Based on rainstorm processes and disaster data in Liaoning proince from 1951 to 2012,characteristics of rainstorm disaster and its assessment were analyzed.Relationship between disaster-causing index and assessment of disaster effect was investigate using a statistic analysis method.The results show that the number of annual average rainstorm days in Liaoning province gradually reduces from southeast to northwest during 1951 to 2012.Frequency of rainstorm disaster gradually increases from the middle to northwest,especially in the western Liaoning province. For example,rainstorm disasters account for 73% of total rainstorm events in Kazuo County of Chaoyang.Rain-storm frequency is high and precipitation intensity is weak in the western of Liaoning province,while it is contrary in other areas.Also,probability of rainstorm disaster with the first and second grades is lower in the west than in other areas.Effect of rainstorm disaster on crop and its facilities is most significant.Frequency of affected disaster is the highest in Liaoyang area,and it is 95% of total disaster events.

关 键 词：致灾指标 暴雨灾害 预评估 决策气象服务 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]