全球气候异常下甘蔗气象灾害风险分析  

Risk Analysis of Sugarcane Meteorological Disaster under Global Climate Anomaly

作　　者：潘小军[1] 张忠斌[1] 蒲成毅[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南民族大学经济学院,四川成都610041

出　　处：《保险研究》2014年第12期51-58,共8页Insurance Studies

基　　金：四川省保险学会(2013SCBX06);西南民族大学中央高校资助项目(2014SZYTD01);四川省学术带头人培养资助项目(川人社办[2012]280号);国家社科基金(12XJL012);教育部社科规划(11YJA850016);中国博士后基金(2011M501409;2013T60851)等项目的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：全球气候变化下极端气象灾害频发，农业深受影响，作物产量不稳，市场价格波动较大。本文构建1998～2012年间四川省甘蔗气象灾害风险发育与传递的改进蛛网模型和多因子计量模型，分析发现甘蔗产量依次与蔗糖价格、温度、降水量、播种面积等存在长期稳定关系，上年蔗糖价格每单位百分点的增减平均会导致甘蔗产量133490个百分点的同向增减，每单位百分点的温度升高平均可增产甘蔗58208个百分点，降水量与种植面积尽管也呈正向影响，两者的影响力度却相比其他都小。另外，还发现甘蔗气象灾害风险发育与传递机理呈“全球气候变化→极端气象灾害发生→农作物产量变化→粮食市场价格波动→经济社会发展风险”的规律。对提高区域性甘蔗气象灾害的分析评估与预测能力，强化事前防灾减灾效果，减轻甘蔗气象灾害对甘蔗产区农户和糖厂的经济危害等有参考价值。Global climate change triggers off frequent extreme meteorological disasters which affects agricultural in- dustry significantly and gives rise to unstable production and volatile prices. The paper constructed an improved cobweb model and multi-factor measurement model for the sugarcane meteorological disaster mutation and transmis- sion in Sichuan province from 1998 to 2012. The research revealed that sugarcane yield had a long-term stable rela- tionship with sugarcane price, temperature, precipitation, and acreage planted. Per unit percentage point increase or decrease in sugarcane price of previous year would lead to 133490 percentage point increase or decrease in sugar- cane produce on average in the same direction. Per unit percentage point increase in temperature would lead to 58208 percentage point increase in sugarcane produce on average. Precipitation and acreage planted were also posi- tively correlated, but at a minor extent. We also revealed a risk sequential chain structure,that is,＂ climate change →extreme meteorological disasters→changes in crop yield→grain price fluctuations→economic and social develop- ment risks＂. Strengthening meteorological risk analysis can lift the effect of disaster prevention and mitigation. It is also of a reference value reducing economic losses of sugarcane farmer and sugar plants caused by sugarcane mete- orological disasters.

关 键 词：气候变化 农业气象灾害 气象产量 风险分析方法 

分 类 号：F322[经济管理—产业经济]