农村居民地震风险感知及影响因素分析——以云南省楚雄州的调研数据为例  

Earthquake Risk Perception and Its Influencing Factors in Rural China:A Case Study on Survey Data in Chuxiong of Yunnan Province

作　　者：田玲[1] 屠鹃 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《保险研究》2014年第12期59-69,共11页Insurance Studies

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目"我国巨灾保险制度安排与实施路径研究"(项目编号:11&ZD053);教育部人文社科规划项目"中国巨灾保险供给能力研究"(09YJA790149)资助;特此致谢

摘　　要：自然灾害风险感知水平是影响风险防范意识和行为的直接原因,研究个体对于自然灾害风险感知水平具有重要的现实意义。因此,本文以"农村居民地震风险感知与地震保险需求"微观调查数据作为样本,从多角度分析了云南省楚雄州农村居民对于地震风险的感知水平,同时研究了个人的灾害经历、风险暴露程度、个人社会经济特征和其他特有因素对于风险感知水平的影响。研究结果表明:灾害经历对于风险感知具有正负两种效应;风险暴露程度与风险感知水平呈现负相关的关系;诸如年龄、性别、收入等社会经济因素都会对个体的风险感知产生明显的影响;特有因素中,政府对于地震的宣传和发放的地震应急包会降低个人的风险感知水平。最后,本文基于上述结论,提出了相应的政策建议。The risk perception Therefore studying individual＇ s multi-angle analysis of farmers＇ of natural hazards affects the risk mitigation and prevention behavior directly. risk perception of natural hazards is of a realistic significance. This article made a risk perception of earthquake based on the microscopic investigation of ＂farmer＇s earthquake risk perception and earthquake insurance demand＂, and also studied the effects of other influencing fac- tors such as hazard experience, risk exposure, socio-economic characteristics and other special factors. The results showed that： （i） hazard experience had both negative and positive effects;（ii） risk exposure would influence risk perception negatively;（iii） the socio-economic factors such as age, gender, income also had obvious effects on risk perception;（iv） among special factors ,government publicity on earthquake and dispatched earthquake first-aid kit could decrease one＇s risk perception. We provided some suggestions based on these findings.

关 键 词：地震风险 风险感知 影响因素 次序probit 

分 类 号：F840.64[经济管理—保险]