大庆海外石油钻探项目风险预警管理研究——基于模糊综合评价模型  

Study on the Early-Warning Management of Daqing's Overseas Oil Drilling Project Risks——Based on Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Model

作　　者：张洪大[1,2] 帅传敏[1] 郭晴[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国地质大学(武汉)经济管理学院,湖北武汉430074 [2]大庆钻探工程公司,黑龙江大庆163000

出　　处：《中国国土资源经济》2015年第1期34-38,共5页Natural Resource Economics of China

基　　金：大庆油田项目化管理模式与发展策略研究(2012086008);中国地质大学研究生培养模式与教学改革项目(CUGYCXK1004)

摘　　要：以大庆钻探工程公司承揽的海外石油钻探项目为研究对象,通过发放和收集150份有效调查问卷,采用文献研究法、问卷调查法、德尔菲法专家法、模糊综合评价法等方法,对海外石油钻探项目的风险预警管理体系进行了研究;采用模糊综合评价法构建了海外石油钻探项目的风险预警评价模型。研究显示:(1)大庆海外石油钻探项目的总体风险管控良好,但仍存在较大优化空间;(2)政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险对项目总风险的影响很大。政策建议:(1)采取有针对性的风险应对策略,对于较低风险水平的因素可以忽略,而对于较高风险水平的因素必须进行监控;(2)主要从政治经济风险、管理风险和财务风险方面来改进。This paper focuses on the research of overseas oil drilling projects contracted by Daqing drilling engineering company. Through our efforts to issuing and collecting 150 effective questionnaires; using literature research, questionnaire survey method, Delphi method, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, we have studied the early-warning management system of overseas oil drilling project risks. On this basis, we have built risk early warning model regarding offshore oil drilling projects by using the method of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. Research shows that they have done well in controlling overall risks of overseas oil drilling projects in Daqing, but there are still numerous spaces for optimization. At the same time, political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk have a great inlfuence on overall risks of projects. In response to this, this paper suggests that we should take speciifc countermeasures to deal with the risks, monitor the higher level of risk factors, while ignore the lower level of risk factors. In addition, the improvements should be focused on political and economic risk, management risk, and ifnancial risk.

关 键 词：海外石油钻探项目 风险预警 模糊综合评价法 大庆油田 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学] F407.1