单独两孩政策下独生子女数量、结构变动趋势预测  

Forecast on the Size and Structure Trends of the Only-children under the New Birth Policy

作　　者：姚引妹[1] 李芬[1] 尹文耀[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学人口与发展研究所,浙江杭州310058

出　　处：《浙江大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2015年第1期94-104,共11页Journal of Zhejiang University:Humanities and Social Sciences

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(12BRK014)

摘　　要：基于2005年全国1%人口抽样调查资料及2010年"六普"特别汇总数据,对单独两孩政策下我国独生子女规模的测算方法、步骤、空间分布和年龄构成进行研究后发现:全国独生子女数量仍将持续增长,2050年将达到3.03亿人,但比原计划生育政策下将减少0.45亿人。独生子女的空间分布以城镇、东部地区较多,到2050年,城镇独生子女规模将达到2.70亿人,占独生子女的89.1%;独生子女省际分布差异大,到2050年,江苏、山东等12省区的独生子女存量在1 000万人以上,西藏、青海、海南则不到100万人。独生子女的年龄构成当前以40岁以下为主,到21世纪40年代中期转为40岁及以上中老年人为主,因此,应提前做好独生子女父母养老保障的应对工作。Family planning policy implemented over 30 years has generated a lot of only-children in China,and it has become a hot issue.The government loosened its single-child policy to allow a parent who has an only-child in their family to have another baby in 2014.Definitely this change will have an impact on the size and structure of the only-children.Thus,it is worth studying and forecasting under the new policy,especially in the context of″less younger children and more aging population,″so as to provide the basic information for the policy-maker to develop one-child parents pension policies in China.Based on 1% national population sample survey in 2005 and census data in 2010,we estimate the multi-age marriage probability among couples of double only-children,single only-children and non-only children,by following the idea and method of parity progression to measure out different number ofcouples who will be allowed to give only-children,or second children under the new fertility policy,and based on the number of second children and the parity-specific births to adjust dynamically the attributes of only children or non-only children,and to estimate the number of age-sex-specific only-children.The results show that by the end of 2013,the number of only-children had reached about 218 million,of which 69.0%lived in cities or towns,and 31.0%in rural areas.With the implementation of the new fertility policy in 2014,the number of only-children will continue to grow,and the long term trend of lower birth rate is immutable.The number of only-children will reach 303 million by 2050,but45 million less than under the one-child policy,which means less of only-child risky families and a more harmonious family structure conducive to future pension protection.The spatial distribution of only-children is heavier in our urban areas and eastern regions than other areas.There will be 303 million only-children in 2050,of which those in urban areas will account for89.1%and the rural only-children for 10.9%.The only-children are main

关 键 词：单独两孩政策 独生子女 空间分布 年龄结构 变动趋势 

分 类 号：C924.21[社会学—人口学]