中国各省份个税潜力估算及影响因素分析——综合累进个税改革的经验证据  

Individual Income Tax Potential Estimate of Chinese Provinces and its Influencing Factor Analysis——Empirical Evidence on Comprehensive Progressive Individual Tax Reform

作　　者：李伟[1] 王少国[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《当代经济科学》2015年第1期25-31,125,共7页Modern Economic Science

基　　金：2013年国家社科基金项目"非法非正常收入形成的博弈机理及其对国民收入分配格局的影响研究"(13BJL033);北京市人才强教长城学者培养计划的资助

摘　　要：按家庭人均总收入综合累进征收个税是我国个税征收模式改革的重要备选项。本文采用拟合居民收入分布函数法,对这一模式下2012年我国及各省份以个税流失率代表的个税潜力进行了估算和比较,同时也对多种可能因素的影响方向和程度进行了计量回归。研究发现,全国城镇居民整体的个税流失率约为61%,人均纳税额呈现边境和沿海省份高而中部省份低的漏斗状分布,个税流失率由西北向东南梯状上升,"三险一金"支出比例、工薪收入比重、家庭无收入人口比例和收入分配差距是影响综合累进模式下我国各地区个税潜力的主要因素。本文的研究为我国逐步建立综合与分类相结合的个人所得税制提供了一种经验证据,提出了针对性的政策建议。It is an important option of Chinese individual tax model reform to levy comprehensive progressive individual income tax on per capita total family income.This paper uses the fitting residents' income distribution function method and estimates and compares the individual income tax represented by individual income tax loss rate of Chinese provinces under the model.Meanwhile,it conducts metering regression analysis to the influencing directions and extents of many possible factors.The research finds that the general individual income tax of Chinese urban residents is about 61%.The per capita tax amount shows the funnel- shaped distribution:it is high in the border and coastal provinces and low in the middle provinces.The individual income tax rises like a ladder from northwest to southeast.The expenditure proportion of 'three kinds of insurances and one pension',salary income proportion,the population proportion of families that have no income and income distribution disparity are the main factors that influence the individual income tax potential of Chinese provinces under comprehensive progressive model.The study of this paper provides a kind of empirical evidence for China to gradually build comprehensive and classified individual income tax system and puts forward pertinent policy suggestions.

关 键 词：个人所得税 税收潜力 流失率 个税改革 综合累进 

分 类 号：F812.42[经济管理—财政学]