不同灾害风险情境下成品粮应急供应的系统动力学研究  

Dynamics Research on Grain Emergency Supply System with Different Disaster Risks

作　　者：王琳[1] 侯云先[1] 张莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《科技与经济》2015年第1期106-110,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目--"粮食应急储备网络运作机理与模型优化研究"(项目编号:14BGL062;项目负责人:侯云先)成果之一;国家科技支撑计划课题--"村镇公共设施优化配置与运营管理关键技术研究"(项目编号:2014BAL07B04;项目负责人:乔忠)成果之一;北京市现代物流研究基地开放课题--"应急物流管理体系研究"(项目编号:JD2013003;项目负责人:侯云先)成果之一

摘　　要：采用系统动力学仿真方法对灾害风险下粮食应急供应系统风险进行建模,并分析生产风险、运输风险情境下成品粮应急供应效果。通过模拟仿真得出:生产风险导致代储企业在灾害发生初期出现零生产,平均供应量减少28%;运输风险导致需求短缺量增加31.5%,未满足订货量增加250%。此外通过研究发现:粮食应急供应系统存在信息延迟和物流延迟;成品粮代储能保障灾害发生初期粮食的及时供应,显著提高应急救援效果。It is of great significance to measure the mutation risk in the grain emergency supply system for the construction of grain emergency network. The paper used system dynamics theory to simulate the grain emergency supply system with production risk and transportation risk, as the traditional methods are not applicable. The simulations reveal that ： the production risk leads to a ＂zero pro- duction＂ at the beginning of a disaster, and a 28% decrease in average supply; the transportation risk makes the demand shortage and the shortage of order from supply outlets increase 31.5% and 250%. Furthermore, the research shows that： there are the information and logistics delay in the emergency supply system; the emergency reserve of processed grain can ensure timely supply of emergency grain and significantly improve the emergency rescue effects at the early occurrence of the disaster.

关 键 词：应急物流 粮食应急系统 供应链风险 系统动力学 

分 类 号：N941.3[自然科学总论—系统科学]