新疆能源消费与城镇化和工业化的相互影响分析  

INTERACTION BETWEEN XINJIANG'S ENERGY CONSUMPTION AND URBANIZATION AND INDUSTRIALIZATION

作　　者：王长建[1] 张虹鸥[1] 汪菲[2,3] 张新林[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]广州地理研究所,广东广州510070 [2]中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830011 [3]中国科学院大学资源与环境学院,北京100049

出　　处：《资源与产业》2015年第1期115-121,共7页Resources & Industries

基　　金：广东省科学院青年科学研究基金(qnjj2015);广州地理研究所所长基金创新人才项目(030)

摘　　要：系统分析新疆工业化、城镇化和能源消费的历史演变及特征,并采用动态计量经济模型,实证研究1978—2011年新疆工业化、城镇化与能源消费之间的动态影响。研究表明,改革开放以来新疆的能源消费增长分别与工业化、城镇化存在着长期稳定的比例关系;能源消费与工业化和城镇化互为Granger因果关系;新疆的工业化水平提升1%,能源消费将增长4.776%;城镇化水平提升1%,能源消费将增长4.047%。城镇化和工业化对能源消费的影响程度要远远高于能源消费对城镇化和工业化的影响程度,并且能源消费对工业化的促进作用要强于对城镇化的促进作用。This paper studies the evolution and features of Xinjiang＇s industrialization, urbanization and energy consumption, and their interaction from 1978--2011 is also analyzed by using dynamic economy model. Since 1978 Xinjiang＇s energy consumption has proportionally increased with industrialization and urbanization, showing Granger causality. When Xinjiang＇s industrialization level rises by 1%, energy consumption will rise by 4. 776%; when urbanization level rises by 1%, energy consumption will rise by 4. 047%. The influence of industrialization and urbanization on energy consumption is far higher than that of energy consumption on industrialization and urbanization, and energy consumption has a bigger promotion to industrialization than to urbanization.

关 键 词：能源消费 工业化 城镇化 协整检验 GRANGER因果检验 新疆 

分 类 号：F426.2[经济管理—产业经济] F299.27F224