基于马尔可夫模型的输电线路可靠性评估  

Reliability Evaluation on Power Transmission Lines Based on Markov Model

作　　者：叶练方 王星华[1] 颜少伟 陈月玲 

机构地区：[1]广东工业大学自动化学院,广东广州510006 [2]广东南方职业学院工程系,广东江门529000

出　　处：《广东电力》2015年第1期76-81,共6页Guangdong Electric Power

基　　金：广东省自然科学基金项目(10151009001000045)

摘　　要：为了准确分析输电线路的运行情况,针对线路在运行中可能遭受冰雪、雷击、鸟害、外力破坏等因素而处于瞬时性故障或者永久性故障,运用马尔可夫过程原理,探讨了输电线路在某种环境下处于"两状态"或者"三状态"的建模方法。该方法利用数理统计方法分析输电线路处于各种故障的运行数据,得出线路故障率及修复率,再通过MATLAB软件计算输电线路处于各种状态下的概率及系统可靠性。以湖北2001-2005年500 kV输电线路为例,采用该方法计算出系统的可靠性为88.54%,表明该模型能准确反映输电线路实际运行特性,从而提高了仿真模型的精确性。For correctly analyzing operation of power transmission lines, aiming at lines being in instantaneous fault or per- manent fault probably caused for reasons such as ice and snow, lightning stroke, birds trouble or external force damages, this paper discusses modeling methods for power transmission lines being in ＂two states＂ or ＂three states＂ under some conditions by using Markov process principle. By using mathematical statistics method, this method is able to analyze operational data of power transmission lines being in various faults and get lines fault rate and repair rate. By means of MATLAB software, probability of lines being in various states and system reliability is able to be worked out. Taking 500 kV power transmission lines from 2001 to 2005 in Hubei as examples, this method was used to work out reliability of the system being 88. 54% which indicated that this model was able to correctly reflect practical operational characteristics of power transmission lines and improve precision of the simulation model.

关 键 词：电力系统 输电线路 马尔可夫模型 可靠性 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]