基于金融脆弱性指数构建金融风险预警系统的实证研究  

An Empirical Study of Financial Early Risk Warning System Construction Based on Financial Vulnerability Index

作　　者：饶勋乾[1] 

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学经济学院,湖北武汉430073

出　　处：《山东财经大学学报》2015年第1期18-27,共10页Journal of Shandong University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：金融脆弱性理论蕴含了基本的金融风险预警思想,是金融风险预警体系的一个重要组成部分。在回顾金融脆弱性理论和金融脆弱性指数研究的基础上,运用因子分析法构建中国金融脆弱性指数,并结合中国的实践进行了金融风险预警系统的实证分析。研究表明,2001年以来大约有近30%的月份我国的金融脆弱性指数处于警戒线上。金融脆弱性指数受货币因素影响较大,与通货膨胀之间存在长期的稳定关系,应重点关注货币供应量和房地产市场波动,深化金融体制改革,健全预警监测体系及构建科学的金融脆弱性指标体系。Financial fragility theory, as an important part of the financial risk early warning system, contains the basic theory of the system. This paper, based on reviewing financial fragility theory and financial fragility index studies, constructs China financial vulnerability index financial risk early warning system. The research by factor analysis method and makes an empirical analysis of China finds that in about 30% months since 2001 China＇ s financial fragility index lies in the boundary line. Financial fragility index is influenced greatly by monetary factors and has a long-term stable relationship with inflation. So the focus of attention should be on money supply and real estate market fluctuation, deepening the reform of the financial system, sounding early warning and monitoring system and con- structing the scientific financial fragility index system.

关 键 词：金融风险预警 金融脆弱性理论 预警指标 

分 类 号：F832.332[经济管理—金融学]