气候变化背景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性研究  

Study on the Sensitivity of Wheat Water Requirement Under Future Climate Change

作　　者：雒新萍[1] 夏军[2,1] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地水循环及地表过程重点实验室,北京100101 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,武汉430072

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2015年第1期38-43,共6页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究973项目(2010CB428406,2012CB956204)

摘　　要：利用CROPWAT作物模型模拟分析了过去50年(1961—2010年)及IPCC RCPs情景下未来2020年代(2020—2029年)中国小麦需水量的变化情况。在此基础上,以小麦需水量的变化率作为敏感性因子,对RCP4.5和RCP8.5排放情景下中国小麦需水量的敏感性进行了探讨。结果表明:中国小麦多年平均需水量约为1056.4亿m3,最高值位于黄淮海地区。小麦需水量对气候变化的敏感性存在空间差异,华北和西北地区是小麦需水量的重度和极度敏感区,东北地区以及云贵高原地带是小麦需水量的轻度敏感区,而中国中部及南方部分地区的小麦需水量对气候变化不敏感。不同RCP排放情景下小麦需水量的敏感性分布不同,RCP8.5高排放情景下的小麦需水量敏感性区域比RCP4.5中排放情景下明显扩大,轻度和中度敏感区域扩大尤为明显。By using CROPWAT model, the wheat water requirement in 1961-2010 and 2020s（2020-2029） under IPCC RCPs scenarios were simulated. Defining the change rate of wheat water requirement as a sensitive factor, the sensitivity of wheat water requirement in China under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios were discussed. The results showed that the mean annual wheat water requirement in China was 105.64 billion m3 and the highest value was located in Huang-Huai-Hai regions. Wheat water requirement in most areas of China tends to be sensitive to climate change. The highly and extremely sensitive regions in terms of wheat water requirement will be distributed in North and Northwest China. And the lightly sensitive areas will be distributed in Northeast China and Yungui Plateau, while in the middle and south of China, the wheat water requirement will not be sensitive to climate change.Moreover, the sensitivity spatial distribution of wheat water requirement is different under various RCP emission scenarios, while the lightly and moderately sensitive areas in terms of wheat water requirement under RCP8.5 scenario become larger significantly than under the RCP4.5 scenario.

关 键 词：小麦需水量 气候变化 敏感性 CROPWAT模型 

分 类 号：S512.1[农业科学—作物学] P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]