基于备件需求预测的两步法理论  

Theoretical Studies of Spare Parts Demand Forecasting Based on Two-step Method

作　　者：任喜[1] 赵建军[1] 王毅[1] 张晓斐[2] 

机构地区：[1]海军航空工程学院 [2]海军92635部队

出　　处：《指挥控制与仿真》2014年第6期85-87,共3页Command Control & Simulation

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(60478053)

摘　　要：在对备件需求时间序列研究的基础上,结合指数平滑法和Croston法的特点,分析了指数平滑法与两步法的原理,通过对指数平滑法和两步法方差的研究,得到两步法是指数平滑法的一般形式的结论,为两步法的进一步研究提供一定的理论支撑。On the basis of timeseries studies of spare parts demand, combining the characteristics of exponential smoothing and Croston method, the paper analyses the principle of the exponential smoothing and the twostep. Through the study of exponential smoothing and variance of the twostep method, it obtains that the twostep method is the general form of exponential smoothing method., which provides a theoretical support for the further study of the twostep method.

关 键 词：指数平滑法 Croston法 两步法 备件预测 对比分析 

分 类 号：E92[军事—军事装备学]