长江三角洲地区城市化与能源消耗及碳排放的关联分析  

Association Analysis of Yangtze River Delta Region's urbanization,energy-consumption and carbon emissions

作　　者：汪中华[1] 梁爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学经济学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2014年第5期54-57,共4页Territory & Natural Resources Study

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"草原地区矿产资源开发与生态环境保护的耦合研究"(11BMZ057)

摘　　要：城市化是每个国家必须经历的发展阶段,城市化引起的环境问题成为当前研究的热点。本文依据IPCC提供的方法对长江三角洲地区1999~2012年能源消耗碳排放水平进行测算,并运用协整理论和ECM模型分析了城市化与能源消耗及碳排放的关系。研究发现该地区的城市化水平与能源消耗及碳排放量在长期表现出持久的均衡关系,并且这种关系可以在短时间得到显著的改进,同时城市化水平能Granger引起能源消耗和碳排放。因此调整城市化结构,提高能源使用效率是推进地区可持续发展的主要路径。urbanization is a necessary stage of every country＇s development,the environment problems caused by urbanization has been a hot topic recently.This paper calculates energy-consumption carbon emissions of Yangtze River Delta Region from 1999 to2012 based on IPCC,then using co-integration analysis and error correct model studies the association of urbanization,energy-consumption and carbon emissions.The results show that there is long-term co-integration relationship among urbanization,energy-consumption and carbon e-missions in the Yangtze River Delta,and the relationship can be corrected significantly in the short term.Granger causality analysis shows urbanization is an important cause of energy-consumption and carbon emissions.In a word,modulating the structure of urbanization and improving energy efficiency are the main way to promote regional sustainable development.

关 键 词：城市化 能源消耗 碳排放 协整分析 

分 类 号：TK018[动力工程及工程热物理]