台风暴雨条件下高台阶排土场边坡可靠度分析  

Reliability Analysis of the Slope of Hillside Waste-Dumps with High Stairs in the Condition of Typhoon Rainstorm

作　　者：董岩松[1,2] 简文彬[1,2,3] 陈玮[1,2] 林兴旺[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]福州大学环境与资源学院,福建福州350108 [2]福州大学岩土工程与工程地质研究所,福建福州350108 [3]福建省地质灾害重点实验室,福建福州350002

出　　处：《水利与建筑工程学报》2014年第6期59-64,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering

基　　金：福建省地质灾害重点实验室开放基金(FJKLGP2012K001)资助

摘　　要：台风暴雨是诱发边坡失稳的重要因素。为探讨暴雨作用下高台阶排土场稳定性计算方法,引入可靠度理论进行分析。通过对影响排土场边坡稳定性的不确定因素分析,建立排土场边坡可靠度分析流程。以福建龙岩某铁矿排土边坡为实例,对排土边坡强度参数进行敏感度分析,得出内摩擦角φ的敏感度>内聚力c敏感度;以降雨强度为60 mm/d持续降雨72 h排土边坡可靠度指标的求解为例,对排土场边坡的稳定性进行可靠度分析。结果表明,此时排土场边坡可靠度指标为6.054,破坏概率为0。根据《有色金属矿山排土场设计规范》以1.12为设计安全系数,排土边坡失稳概率为29.63%,相应的安全概率为70.37%。Rainstorm is an important factor of inducing slope instability .The calculation of the stability of hillside waste-dumps with high stairs under rainstorm was discussed by introducing reliability theory .The basic process of reliability analysis of waste-dump slopes was established by analyzing the uncertain factors affecting the slope stability of the dump . According to an example of mine waste dump slope in Longyan city of Fujian province ,analysis of sensitivity factors based on strength parameters indicate that internal friction 〉internal force c .Then ,According to the process of solving reliability index on condition of the rainfall strength of 60 mm/day sustaining 72 h ,the result manifests that the reliability index is 6 .054 and the failure probability is 0 .Finally ,when the value of safety factor is 1 .12 as specified in the Code for Waste Dump Design of Nonferrous Metal Mines ,the failure probability of waste-dump slope is 29 .63% ,with the cor-responding safety probability of 70 .37% .

关 键 词：边坡稳定性 可靠度分析 不确定性分析 风险评价 

分 类 号：TU413.62[建筑科学—岩土工程]