能源项目投资决策评价的实物期权法与传统方法的综述分析与比较研究  

Comprehensive Analysis and Comparative Study on Real Option Method and Traditional Methods for Evaluating Energy Project Investment Decision

作　　者：马可[1] 雷汉云[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学金融学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《安徽商贸职业技术学院学报》2014年第4期37-42,共6页Journal of Anhui Business College

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71261024);国家社科基金项目(13CGJ032);湖南省社科基金项目(12YBB218);新疆维吾尔自治区高校科研计划重点项目(XJEDU2012I31);新疆财经大学研究生课题(cdyjk2014011)

摘　　要：能源项目具有高投资、周期长、风险大等特点,传统投资决策方法由于其天生的缺陷,不能科学合理的对能源项目进行决策评估。而实物期权则能较为科学合理的对能源项目进行价值评估。综述分析了以贴现现金流法为主的传统决策方法和实物期权法,指出实物期权在能源项目投资分析中的合理性,更适合能源项目的投资决策分析。The features of energy projects include high investment, long period and high risk. The traditional investment decision method has its inherent limitations, so that it can not evaluate energy projects scientifically and reasonably, while the real option method is more scientific and reasonable in assessing the value of energy projects. This paper reviews the traditional decision methods, mainly the discounted cash flow method and also the real option method, pointing out that the real option method is more rational in analyzing energy project investment, which means it is more suitable for analyzing the investment decision on energy project.

关 键 词：能源项目 投资决策 贴现现金流法 实物期权 

分 类 号：F407.2[经济管理—产业经济]