持续顺差时期我国出口贸易价格和收入弹性的估计——基于联立方程模型的分析  

An Estimation of China Export Price and Income Elasticity during Its Persistent Surplus Period——Based on a Simultaneous Equations Model Analysis

作　　者：鞠姗[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东财经大学国际经贸学院,山东济南250014

出　　处：《山东财政学院学报》2014年第6期45-51,共7页Journal of Shandong Finance Institute

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"新型贸易保护措施对中国企业出口行为的影响与对策体系研究"(71303134);辽宁省社会科学规划基金项目"辽宁企业向拉美;非洲新兴地区投资问题研究"(L12BJY019)

摘　　要：我国商品贸易已连续20年保持顺差,而出口商品价格及主要顺差伙伴国收入的变化对我国出口需求变动的影响是判断商品贸易顺差可持续性的重要方面。文章利用1999年第2季度到2012年第4季度的数据作为样本,通过构建联立方程模型,同时考虑供给和需求两方面因素,估计了联立方程模型下中国持续顺差时期出口贸易的价格和收入弹性。结果显示:短期内,中国出口商品的需求价格弹性为-1.156,需求收入弹性为1.044;长期看,中国出口商品的长期需求价格弹性为-3.803,长期需求收入弹性为3.434。估计结果表明,出口商品价格的提高、我国长期对其维持顺差的六个国家收入的降低会减少我国出口商品的收益,这对影响我国商品贸易的人民币汇率、出口退税等政策调整具有重要的参考价值。China＇ s merchandise trade surplus has been lasting for 20 years, and the effect of export merchandise price and the income change of the main trade partner countries on the changes of China export demand is an important aspect for judging the sustainability of China merchandise trade surplus. This paper, by taking as sample the data between the second quarter of 1999 to the fourth quarter of 2012 and by constructing the simultaneous equations model while taking supply and demand into consideration, estimates via Simultaneous Equations Model China export price and income elasticity during its persistent surplus period. The results show that in the short term the demand price elasticity and the demand income elasticity are - 1. 156 and 1. 044 respectively while in the long term they are - 3. 803 and 3. 434 respectively. The estimation results indicate that the price increase in China export merchandise and the income decrease in the six trade partner countries will reduce the returns of China export merchandise, which possesses a significant reference value for China to adjust the policies concerning RMB exchange rate and export tax rebate.

关 键 词：出口价格弹性 出口收入弹性 联立方程模型 顺差 

分 类 号：F752[经济管理—国际贸易]