信息披露质量对分析师预测的影响  

The Effect of the Quality of Information Disclosure on Analysts' Forecasts

作　　者：卢清昌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学会计学院,北京100081 [2]贵州财经大学会计学院,贵州贵阳550025

出　　处：《技术经济与管理研究》2014年第12期115-119,共5页Journal of Technical Economics & Management

摘　　要：作为连接上市公司与外部投资者的重要信息中介,分析师预测质量的高低对降低信息不对称,提高资本市场效率具有重要作用,而所获公司信息的质量是影响其正确分析判断的因素之一。文章利用2009-2013年我国上市公司数据,以深交所信息披露考评结果作为信息披露质量的代理变量,考察了信息披露质量提升对分析师预测误差、预测分歧度的影响。实证结果发现:信息披露质量较高的公司及信息披露质量水平提升的公司,分析师预测分歧度和预测误差也较低。这意味着,作为一个公开的重要信息来源,上市公司的信息披露质量显著影响了分析师预测。此研究结论不仅有助于监管者了解信息披露政策对资本市场参与者的现实影响,也为其合理引导公司信息披露,完善相关规范政策提供新的决策参考。As an important information intermediary connecting the listed companies and outside investors, the quality of analysts＇ prediction plays an important role in reducing the information asymmetry and promoting capital market efficiency, while the quality of information is one of the factors affecting the correct analysis and judgment. Using the data of listed companies in China from 2009 to 2013 with the results of evaluation from the Shenzhen Stock exchange served as the proxy variable of quality of information disclosure , this paper examined the impact of the promoting quality of information disclosure on analysts＇ forecast error and forecast divergence. The empirical results show that the higher quality of information disclosure or the higher level of information disclosure in a company, the lower divergence and error in analysts＇ forecast. Therefore, as an important source of information for the public, the quality of information disclosure of a listed company significantly affects the analysts＇ forecast. This conclusion not only helps regulators understand the real impact of information disclosure policy on capital market participants, but also provides a new decision-making reference for the reasonable guidance for information disclosure and improvement of relevant regulatory policies.

关 键 词：信息披露 盈余预测 上市公司 证券分析 

分 类 号：F822[经济管理—财政学]