基于IAD延伸决策模型的农户征地意愿研究  

Farmers Land Expropriation Willingness Based on IAD Extension Decision Model

作　　者：曹裕[1] 吴次芳[1] 朱一中[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江大学公共管理学院,中国浙江杭州310029

出　　处：《经济地理》2015年第1期141-148,共8页Economic Geography

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BGL056);国家社会科学基金重点项目(13AZD012)

摘　　要：基于奥斯特罗姆IAD模型的延伸框架,通过广东省21个市(县)2013年的调查数据,首先运用二元logistic整体回归模型对征地制度改革中农户的征地意愿进行研究,进而发现细分已征地农户与未征地农户的意愿差异并差别分析的必要。研究结果显示:除了一般的户主特征变量、征地补偿标准变量外,程序变量和认知改革变量对已征地和未征地农户的征地意愿影响尤其显著,但二者在近乎均质的行动舞台中,基于对事前最终行动结果信息的感知和预测,在征地意愿上表现出了不同的变量特征,数据分析表明未征地农户是以征地农户的最终行动结果(决策前)作为决策参照,以制定激励和预期收益调整征地意愿决策。另外,回归模型显示在征地意愿的影响因素中,程序公正(协议征地)要优于货币补偿,农户对土地财产性权利分配的关切不是征地制度改革自身所能解决的。Based on the extension framework of Elinor Ostrom IAD model, by using binary logistic regression model,according the 2013 survey data from 21 cities in Guangdong province, focus on the farmer willingness of land expropriate in the land system reform, and subdivision the willingness difference between land- taken farmer and landkeep farmer, the results showed that the cognitive reform variables impose a significant impact on land expropriate willingness of both. However, based on the perception and predict the prior result information of the final act, they showed different variables characteristics in land expropriate willingness in the near- homogeneous action arena, which shows that land-keep farmer make willingness by referring to land-taken farmer, revise willingness decision according to incentives system and expected income. In addition, regression model showed that among the affecting factors of landtaken willingness, Procedural fairness（Protocol Land- taken） is superior to monetary compensation. The distribution of land property rights can not be resolve only by the reform of land expropriation system itself.

关 键 词：土地制度 IAD延伸框架 智力决策 征地意愿 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]