经济适用房能降低房价吗？--基于经济适用房供给量的调节作用分析  

Can Affordable Housing Reduce Housing Price:The Moderating Effect of the Supply Quantity of Affordable Housing

作　　者：刘广平[1] 陈立文[1] 许海平[2] 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学经济管理学院天津300401 [2]海南大学经济与管理学院海口570228

出　　处：《中央财经大学学报》2015年第2期106-112,共7页Journal of Central University of Finance & Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目:“符合中国国情的住房保障和供应体系研究”(14BJY060);天津市哲学社会科学规划基金项目:“滥价回收视角下城市公共物品的平等负担制度研究--以公共交通为例”(TJLJ13-007);河北省软科学基金项目:“河北省新型城镇化与京津冀区域统筹发展研究”(134576225D);河北省社会科学基金项目:“河北省保障性住房可持续发展研究”(HB14GL067);河北省自然科学基金项目:“基于P-SCP范式的住房市场结构、行为和绩效关系研究”(G2015202274);河北省软科学研究计划项目:“基于公众需求的保障性住房供给机制研究--以河北省为例”(14456110D)

摘　　要：笔者在理论框架分析的基础上,采用2003—2010年我国29个省、直辖市和自治区的省际面板数据,以人均GDP、土地价格和房产税为控制变量,运用层级回归方法探讨了经济适用房价格与商品房价格之间的关系。研究结果表明,经济适用房价格未能抑制商品房价格的表象是不真实的,两者存在着正向关系。而且,经济适用房供给量正向调节经适房价格与房价之间的关系。人均GDP和房产税均显著正向影响商品房价格。经济适用房供给量对商品房价格有显著负向影响。土地价格正向影响商品房价格,但不显著。最后,从合理确定经适房价格、增加经适房供给力度、调整房产税征收内容与范围和改革土地招拍挂制度等方面给出了降低商品房价格的政策建议。Using the province-level panel data of 29 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions from 2003 to 2010, we choose per capital GDP, land price and house property tax as control variables, and applying hierarchical regression method to explore the relationship between affordable housing price and com- mercial housing price based on the anlaysis of theoretical framwork. The results show that, the superficies of the affordable housing can not restrain commercial housing price is unreality, the positive raltionship exists be- tween affordable housing price and commercial housing price. Moreover, the supply quantity of affordable housing positive moderates the relationship between affordable housing price and commercial housing price. Per capital GDP and house property tax are significantly positive impacting on commerical housing price. The supply quantity of affordable housing is significantly negative impacting on commerical housing price. Land price positive impacts on commerical housing price, but not significantly. Based on the research results, we put forwards three policy recommendations to decline commercial housing price from determining the affordable housing prices rationally, increasing the supply quantity of affordable housing, adjusting the content and scope of the property tax and reforming the land bidding system.

关 键 词：经济适用房 房价 供给量 调节作用 

分 类 号：F293.3[经济管理—国民经济]