中国经济非稳态增长典型事实及解析  

Analysis of China's Unbalanced Economic Growth

作　　者：章上峰[1] 许冰[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江工商大学统计学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第3期94-110,共17页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71403247);浙江自然科学基金(LQ13G030006);浙江社会科学基金(14NDJC143YB);教育部人文社会科学基金(13YJC790213;10YJC790065);全国统计科学研究计划项目(2012LY016);浙江省高校人文社科重点研究基地(统计学);浙江工商大学青年人才基金项目的资助

摘　　要："卡尔多事实"总结了发达国家经济稳态增长典型特征,但是作为发展中国家的中国经济呈现非稳态增长,不符合"卡尔多事实"。本文按照王诚(2007)关于典型化事实研究的研究思路,提出中国经济非稳态增长典型事实,并利用时变弹性生产函数模型加以刻画和解析。通过推导时变弹性分解公式,解释1995年以来资本弹性上升、劳动弹性下降,是由于资本边际产出指数大于资本生产率指数、劳动边际产出指数小于劳动生产率指数的结果。研究认为,提升初次分配中劳动收入报酬的比重,关键在于劳动报酬增长不慢于劳动生产率的提高。本文试图在建立中国经济非稳态增长典型化事实及解析方面做出初步探讨。The Karldor fact summary balanced economic growth facts in developed coun- tries, not for developing countries like China. Following the researoh of Wang （2007）, this paper puts forwards the China＇s unbalanced growth facts, and constructs the desirable model time-varying elasticity production function. Derivative of time-varying elasticity index decom- position formula, to explain that the rising of capital elasticity and the decreasing of labor e- lasticity from the year 1995 in China, is due to the capital marginal product index being grea- ter than capital productivity index, while labor marginal product index being less than labor productivity index. It is pointed out that “Enhance the initial distribution of labor income share” lies in labor income growing faster than labor productivity. This paper aims to put for- ward China＇s unbalanced economic growth facts, as well as the preliminary model and the e-conomic interpretations.

关 键 词：典型化事实 非稳态增长 劳动收入份额 时变弹性生产函数 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]