寿命延长与延迟退休:国际比较与我国实证  

Life Extension and Deferring Retirement:International Comparison and China's Empirical Research

作　　者：王晓军[1] 赵明[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学应用统计科学研究中心

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2015年第3期111-128,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金重大项目"我国养老保障体系应对人口老龄化挑战的对策研究"(13&ZD164);国家自然科学基金项目"社会保障预算管理研究"(71173230)的资助

摘　　要：基于国际比较的视角,探讨人口寿命延长与延迟退休之间的机制关系,分析国际上人口寿命延长与延迟退休的实践。通过对我国人口寿命延长趋势的研究,在一定的精算假设下,测算延迟退休对我国养老金支付压力的影响,并分析经济、制度等因素变动对测算结果的敏感性。结论表明,我国人口寿命延长趋势显著,延迟退休能够有效缓解老金支付压力,但在不同的性别之间有所差异。经济、制度等因素与延迟退休之间具有一定的替代效应,尽管延迟退休是未来我国应对人口寿命延长的必然选择,但目前建立二者的调整机制条件尚未成熟。Based on international comparative perspective, this paper explores the rela- tionship mechanism between life extension and deferring retirement, and analyses the inter- national countries＇ practices. Through the study of the trends of China＇s population life ex- pectancy and a certain actuarial assumptions, this paper calculates the deferring retirement effect on the pressure pension payment and the sensitivity of the economic and institutional factors. The results show that China＇s population life expectancy has the growth trend. The effect of deferring retirement is significant for alleviate pressure pension payment, and a substitution effect between economic factors and policy of deferring retirement, but the gen- der gap is significant. Despite the deferring retirement is an inevitable choice for our country,this is not the time.

关 键 词：寿命延长 延迟退休 国际比较 实证分析 

分 类 号：F840.61[经济管理—保险]