基于灰色系统理论的发动机冷却液劣化状况预测  

Prediction of Engine Coolant Deterioration Situation Based on Gray System Theory

作　　者：蓝明新[1] 唐兴中[1] 黄伊琳[1] 李康春 邓富康 黄福川[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学化学化工学院,广西石化资源加工及过程强化技术重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《当代化工》2015年第1期93-97,共5页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：南宁市科学研究与技术开发项目;项目号:20131078

摘　　要：发动机冷却液的在线监测与性能预测评估,对保证发动机的正常运行是十分必要的。针对发动机冷却液性能劣化状况难以预测,且预测精确度低等问题;基于灰色系统理论,构建了灰色等维新息GM(1,1)动态预测模型。通过对-35号乙二醇型发动机冷却液进行预测,研究了所建模型在冷却液劣化状况预测中的适用性。结果表明:灰色等维新息GM(1,1)动态预测模型的模拟值与实际测量值基本吻合,模型预测精度高;同时,这也为发动机冷却液劣化状况的预测提供了一种新的有效途径,对科学、经济、合理地确定发动机冷却液的更换周期,具有重要的指导意义。Online monitoring and performance prediction of the engine coolant are necessary to ensure the normal operation of the engine. But it is difficult to predict the deterioration situation of the engine coolant, and the prediction accuracy is low. In this paper, the grey equal dimension and new information forecast model GM（1,1） was constructed based on the grey system theory. Taking -35 glycol engine coolant as an example,the applicability of constructed prediction model in prediction of the engine coolant deterioration situation was studied.The results show that, prediction results of the gray equal dimension and new information forecast model GM（1,1） are consistent with the actual measured values, and the accuracy of prediction result is higher. Meanwhile, the gray equal dimension and new information forecast model GM（1,1） can provide a new effective method to predict the deterioration situation of engine coolant, which has great guiding significance for the scientific, economical and rational period of changing engine coolant.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 冷却液 劣化 预测 

分 类 号：U473.71[机械工程—车辆工程]