我国人口初婚风险影响因素及其变迁--基于CGSS2010的研究  

Changes of the Factors Influencing the First Marriage Risk of the Chinese :A Research based on CGSS2010

作　　者：刘爽[1,2] 高华[3] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学社会转型与社会管理协同创新中心,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872 [3]中国人民大学社会与人口学院人口学专业,北京100872

出　　处：《南方人口》2015年第1期1-14,46,共15页South China Population

摘　　要：初婚是婚姻历程的起点,是大部分社会成员必然经历的重要人生事件之一。个体初婚事件的发生不仅由其个体条件所决定,也在很大程度上会受到家庭特征、社会变迁的影响。本研究将影响因素分成三个层面:个体层面(性别、受教育程度)、家庭层面(父母受教育程度)和社会层面(区域、城乡、迁移)。基于2010年中国综合社会调查(CGSS2010)数据,使用事件史分析方法,探讨了影响我国人口初婚风险的因素及影响因素的时代变迁。Kaplan-Meier方法显示,不同个体特征、家庭特征和社会特征的群体,其初婚过程表现出明显的过程性特征,并且对数秩检验表明各个层面的因素对初婚的影响都是非常显著的。出生队列的COX风险模型表明,个体层面中教育对初婚的推迟效应彰显;家庭层面中母亲受教育程度对子女初婚的影响逐渐突出,父亲受教育程度的影响力度变弱;社会层面中,区域间的差异对初婚的影响增加,农村和城市婚恋观相近,户口作用不再明显。First marriage is the starting point of the marriage process and one of the most important life events for most people. The occurrence of first marriage event is affected by the characteristics of both individual and family as well as the social changes. This study puts the factors into three groups： the individual characteristics including gender, education, family features including parents of education and social factors including regions, differences of urban and rural residents, migration and explores how these factors influence Chinese people＇s first marriage and the changes in the past decades based on the data from CGSS2010 （China general social survey 2010） by event analysis method. Kaplan-Meier survival function curves show that first marriage risk boast of obvious procedural characteristic for people with different characteristics of individual, family and social backgrounds and log-rank tests show that all these factors have significant effects on first marriage occurrence. On the other hand, COX risk model of birth cohorts shows that education of people delayed their marriage events, mother＇s education level increasingly affect children＇s marriage while the influence from father＇s education increasingly weaken. The impact of regional differences on first marriage is increasing while the differences caused by urban or rural differentiation because of the convergent evolution of the views toward marriage between the youth in the urban and in the rural areas. That is to say the impact of Hukou ,the notorious discrimination identification system against the rural people, is no longer significant in differing the first marriage of the rural youth from their counterpart in the urban.

关 键 词：初婚风险 影响因素 出生队列 社会变迁 

分 类 号：C92-05[社会学—人口学]