奶牛专业合作社决策风险模糊综合评价分析  

Decision-Making Risk Fuzzy Synthetic Evaluation of the Cow Professional Cooperatives

作　　者：王晨[1] 王刚毅[1] 吕游[1] 

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学经济管理学院,哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第21期5299-5303,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71173035)

摘　　要：奶牛专业合作社作为新兴农业合作组织形式逐渐被奶农、政府及学者所重视,因其形成时间较短,信息机制、利益机制和决策机制尚不完善,在决策分析、决策制定及决策执行过程中不可避免存在风险。运用模糊综合评价法对决策流程中导致决策风险的原因进行分析,将决策风险引致因素划分为6个一级指标及14个二级指标构建综合评价指标体系。对黑龙江省肇州县某奶牛专业合作社决策风险进行系统性研究,发现决策中决策者能力、决策机制及监管制度对合作社决策风险的影响程度较大,二级指标中监督反馈程序、监管人员权力、决策主体、决策程序、决策者学历和决策者道德水平对合作社决策风险有明显影响。The cow professional cooperatives as emerging agricultural cooperation organization are valued by dairy farmers,government and scholars gradually.Because their forming time is short,their information mechanism,interest mechanism and decision-making mechanism are not yet perfect.In the decision analysis,decision making and decision implementation process risks exist inevitably.This paper uses fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to analyze the causes of decision-making risk in the decision-making process.The factors that led to decision-making risk are divided into 6 primary indexes and 14 secondary indicators to construct comprehensive evaluation index system.A systematical study on the decision-making risk of a cow professional cooperative in Zhaozhou county in Heilongjiang province finds that the ability of decision-makers,decisionmaking mechanism and supervision system impact decision-making risk greatly,and the secondary indicators,including regulators power,supervision and feedback procedure,decision maker,decision-making procedures,decision makers＇ record of formal school and moral level of decision makers,all have significant effect on the cooperative decision-making risk.

关 键 词：奶牛专业合作社 决策风险 风险评价 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]