兰州市火灾系统的时间分形特征研究  

Research of temporal fractal characteristics of fire system in Lanzhou

作　　者：王健[1] 赵亚云[1] 李双革 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学安全科学与工程学院,河南焦作454000

出　　处：《消防科学与技术》2015年第2期256-259,共4页Fire Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71101046);河南省教育厅自然科学项目(2011B620002);河南理工大学博士基金项目(B2010-63)

摘　　要：基于2003-2007年兰州市火灾事件发生情况,应用变异系数法对城市火灾事件的时间丛集性特征进行分析,使用法诺因子和阿伦因子量化聚类发生的时间尺度范围,探索兰州市火灾时间点序列在一定时间范围内的分形特征。结果显示,兰州市火灾系统具有一定的时间丛集性,且达到一定的时间尺度后,呈现出较为明显的分形特征,时间总长度越大表现越稳定。计算出该市火灾序列的赫斯特指数,发现了其火灾事件之间的正相关性。Based on Lanzhou city fire incident occurrences during 2003-2007, the clustering features of fire disasters were analyzed with the coefficient of variation, and Fano factor and Allan factor were used to quantify the scale range of clustering feature, in order to explore the fractal characteristics of fire time sequence in a certain time. The results showed that the urban fires point process reveals a time-clustering distribution. And over a certain time scale, the point process shows obvious fractal characteristics, which is more stable with length of time getting longger. The Hurst exponent was calculated, and it reveals the fire events were positively correlated.

关 键 词：城市火灾 变异系数 法诺因子 阿伦因子 

分 类 号：X921[环境科学与工程—安全科学] TU998.1[建筑科学—市政工程]