情景预估在气候变化科普中的作用  

The role of scenario forecast in the dissemination of climate change science

作　　者：罗桂湘[1,2] 朱定真[2] 李耀先 

机构地区：[1]广西气象服务中心,广西南宁530022 [2]中国气象局公共气象服务中心,北京100081 [3]广西气象学会,广西南宁530022

出　　处：《气象研究与应用》2014年第4期49-52,共4页Journal of Meteorological Research and Application

基　　金：广西科技创新能力与条件建设项目<壮族地区气候变化科普工作新模式研究>(桂科能14123004-1-2)

摘　　要：通过对国内外情景预估模拟展现气候变化前景和极端气象条件下的灾害事件正、反两方面的案例分析,总结情景预估应用的经验和教训,提出充分发挥情景预估辅助作用的思路,并展望未来情景预估与虚拟现实等高科技结合的应用前景。Based on the analysis on cases of domestic and foreign scenario forecast,which simulate to show the two aspects of disaster event under the prospect of climate change and extreme weather,the experience and lessons of the application of scenario forecast were summarized to provide the ideas of how to give full play to the auxiliary function of scene forecast and look forward to application prospect of combination of future scenario forecast and virtual reality technique.

关 键 词：情景预估 气候变化科普 虚拟现实技术 

分 类 号：P49[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]