基于年度变更平衡表的土地利用结构演变预测——以苏州市为例  

Prediction of Land Use Structure Change Based on Annual Transfer Balance Table——A Case Study of Suzhou

作　　者：乔伟峰[1,2] 王亚华[1] 方斌[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]南京师范大学地理科学学院,江苏南京210023 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101 [3]江苏省物质循环与污染控制重点实验室,江苏南京210023

出　　处：《南京师大学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期110-114,共5页Journal of Nanjing Normal University(Natural Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371172;41271189);中国博士后科学基金(2014M561040);教育部人文科学研究青年基金(11YJC840051);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(164320H101)

摘　　要：目前，基于年度变更平衡表对土地利用演变进行预测的研究较少。本文利用苏州市1998-2008年土地利用变更平衡表，运用Markov预测模型对全市土地利用结构变化进行模拟、检验和预测，并对苏州市土地利用结构何时达到稳定状态进行了探究。结果表明：基于变更平衡表，运用马尔科夫模型预测土地利用结构的方法是切实可行的；至2020年，苏州市农用地、农村居民点用地、未利用地面积逐年减少，且耕地面积减少最明显；城镇建设用地、独立工矿用地、交通运输用地面积逐年增加；到2042年，苏州市的土地利用结构将逐步趋于稳定。本文的研究对于土地利用年度变更平衡表的深入应用有一定的借鉴意义。The study on land use structure prediction based on annual transfer balance table is less now. With the land use annual transfer balance table from 1998 to 2008 in Suzhou,we use Markov model to simulate,experiment and predict the change of the land use structure in the whole city. We also explore when the land use structure in Suzhou can reach a steady state. The results indicate that it is practical and feasible to use Markov model to predict the land use structure based on annual transfer balance table. By 2020,the area of agricultural land,rural residential area and the uncultivated land will reduce year by year. The cultivated land will reduce most obviously. On the contrary, the area of urban construction land,independent mine land,and land for transportation will increase year by year. The land use structure of Suzhou will be stable by 2042. The study is significant for the further applications of land use annual transfer balance table.

关 键 词：变更平衡表 土地利用结构 预测 马尔科夫 苏州市 

分 类 号：F301.23[经济管理—产业经济]