重庆市2004—2012年艾滋病空间自相关分析  

Analysis of spatial autocorrelation of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing from 2004 to 2012

作　　者：杨国婧 李勤[2] 易娟[2] 马殷[2] 赵寒[2] 曾庆[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆医科大学公共卫生与管理学院卫生统计与信息管理教研室,重庆400016 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心,重庆400042

出　　处：《上海交通大学学报（医学版）》2015年第1期112-116,共5页Journal of Shanghai Jiao tong University:Medical Science

基　　金：重庆市卫生局资助项目(2011-2-583)~~

摘　　要：目的探讨重庆市艾滋病发病是否存在空间自相关及空间分布特征,并分析热点区域随时间的变化趋势。方法计算2004—2012年重庆市各区县按年统计的艾滋病发病率,分别进行全局空间自相关分析和局部空间自相关分析。结果 2004—2012年全局Moran's I指数均>0(P<0.05),表明重庆市艾滋病数据存在空间正自相关性,LISA分析结果表明重庆市艾滋病多呈高—高、低—低聚集,G*i分析结果表明热点区域总体呈逐年扩大的趋势。结论重庆市2004—2012年艾滋病空间分布呈现明显正向的相关性,热点随时间大致呈现出扩大的趋势,提示重庆市艾滋病预防保健还应加强。Objective To explore whether the spatial autocorrelation exists in the incidence of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing, discuss features of the spatial distribution, and analyze the trend of variation with time for hot regions. Methods The annual incidence of HIV/AIDS of districts and counties of Chongqing from 2004 to 2012 were calculated and the global spatial autocorrelation analysis and the local spatial autocorrelation analysis were conducted. Results The annual global Moran＇s /indexes from 2004 to 2012 were larger than 0 （P〈 0.05）, which indicated that positive spatial autocorrelation existed in the data. Results of the LISA analysis showed that the cluster state was high-high or low-low. Results of the Gi^＊ analysis indicated that the hot regions expanded with time. Conclusion The significant positive correlation exists in the spatial distribution of incidence of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing from 2004 to 2012. Hot regions expand with time, which indicates that the prevention and health care of HIV/AIDS in Chongqing should be reinforced.

关 键 词：艾滋病 空间自相关 LISA Gi^＊ 热点 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]