公正解读中国国防费开支：从补偿性增长到协调性增长  

Read Chinese Defense Expenditure Impartially:From Compensatory Growth to Coordinated Growth

作　　者：夏庆[1] 孙兆斌[1] 刘思琦[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民解放军军事经济学院,湖北武汉430035 [2]中国人民解放军军事经济学院国防经济系,湖北武汉430035

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2015年第3期85-90,共6页East China Economic Management

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(14BJY154);全军军事经济研究中心课题(QJJSJJYJZX2012KTLX-056)

摘　　要：文章受Laurent Ferrara(2003)启发,选用1978-2012年实际国防费增长率时间序列作为实证数据,运用MS-AR模型对该时间序列进行结构转换分析,研究结果表明:受国防发展战略影响,中国国防费增长大致经历了4个阶段。1980-1988年,国防费处于负增长期,平均增长率约为-3.17%;1989-1996年,国防费处于低增长期,平均增长率约为4.69%;1989-2009年,国防费处于补偿性增长期,平均增长率约为11.99%;2010-2012年,经济增速放缓,国防建设与之协调,其增长率明显减缓。实证结果表明,中国国防费增长具有补偿性、协调性以及防御性特征;2010年以来中国国防费的增长趋势有所变化,在经历持续多年的补偿性增长后,正从补偿性增长向协调性增长转变。为了更有效地实现经济建设与国防建设的协调发展,我国应该大力推动工业和信息化领域军民融合深度发展。This paper, inspired hy Laurent Ferrara＇s research （2003）, uses the time sequence of actual defense ex- penditure growth rate from 1978 to 2012 as the empirical data, and employs MS-AR model to make a structural transtbrmation analysis on this time sequence. The results show that Chinese defense expenditure growth affected by the national del＇ense development strategy, has approximately gone through four states. From 1980 to 1988, the ua- tional detense expenditure was in the negative growth period, with the average growth rate of ahout -3.17 percent. From 1989 to 1996, it was in the lower growth period, with the average growth rate of about 4.69 percent. From 1989 to 2009, it was in the compensatory, growth period, with the average growth rate of about 11.99 pereeul. From 2010 to 2012, China slowed down its economic development, and the national defense expenditure kept its pace with the economic growth and also slowed down considerably. The empirical results also indicate that Chinese defense expenditure growth has the distinctive features of compensation, coordination and defense. The growth ten- dency of Chinese defense expenditure has experienced some changes, and is shifling from compensatory growth to coordinated growth since 2010 after years of constant compensatory growth. China should vigorously promote the inte- grated military and civilian development deeply in industry and information technology fields so as to more effective- ly facilitate the harmonious development of national detbnse amt economic construction.

关 键 词：中国国防费 补偿性增长 协调性增长 

分 类 号：F063.3[经济管理—政治经济学]