近50年华南气象干旱时空特征及其变化趋势  

Temporal-spatial characteristics and its variation trend of meteorological drought in recent 50 years,South China

作　　者：王春林[1,2] 邹菊香 麦北坚 陈慧华[1] 唐力生[1] 段海来[1] 

机构地区：[1]广东省气候中心,广州510080 [2]南京信息工程大学,南京210044 [3]广东省汕头市气象局,汕头515041 [4]广东省鹤山市气象局,鹤山539700

出　　处：《生态学报》2015年第3期595-602,共8页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201106021);国家973计划(2013CB430206);广东省科技计划(2012B020314006);干旱气象科学研究基金(IAM201303)

摘　　要：采用标准化前期降水指数(SAPI)和常年平均相对湿润度指数(M)构建的逐日气象干旱指数(DI),根据华南(广东、广西)174个气象站资料分析了近50年(1961—2010年)气象干旱时空特征及其气候变化趋势。结果表明:(1)华南近30年(1981—2010年)总旱日频率平均为26.0%,其中轻旱、中旱、重旱和特旱日分别为12.3%、8.1%、4.2%和1.4%。(2)各等级旱日频率具有非汛期(10月至次年3月)高于汛期(4月至9月)、广西高于广东的特征。(3)近50年华南最旱的5a依次为:1963、1991、2004、2009、1977。(4)气候变化趋势分析表明,1至9月降水和月干旱指数(MI)以增加趋势为主,各等级旱日数以减少趋势为主,其中7月份MI增加趋势及各等级旱日减少趋势均达到0.1显著水平;而10至12月降水和MI以减小趋势为主,各等级旱日数以增加趋势为主,其中11月份MI减小趋势及中旱、重旱、总旱日增加趋势均达到0.05显著水平。(5)年总旱日趋于增加、减少的站点数各占60%、40%,有11%的站点达到0.1以上显著水平。各等级旱日显著增加的站点大多集中在广西,而旱日显著减少的站点主要集中在广东,表明广西干旱总体上重于广东的格局可能进一步加剧。目的为进一步开展华南气候变化影响评估、水资源利用及应对气候变化提供基础。Using the daily meteorological drought indicator （DI） constructed by standardized antecedent precipitation index （SAPI） and year round average relative moisture index （M）,based on meteorological data of 174 stations of South China （includes Guangdong and Guangxi Province）, temporal and spatial characteristics and its variation trend of meteorological drought in recent 50 years in South China was analyzed in the paper. Main results are： （1） Recent 30 years （1981-2010） average drought days frequency of all levels in South China is 26.0%, where light, middle, severe and extreme drought days accounts for 12.3%, 8.1%, 4.2% and 1.4% respectively. （2） Drought days of each level in non-flood season （October to March） are more than flood season （April to September）, and Guangxi is more than Guangdong. （3） The most dry 5 years in recent 50 years in South China are 1963, 1991, 2004, 2009 and 1977. （4）According to linear trends analysis, rainfall and monthly drought index （MI） from January to September mainly show increasing trend, and drought days of each level mainly show decreasing trend, where increasing trend of MI and decreasing trend of drought days of each level in July are statistically significant （α=0.1）; while rainfall and MI from October to December mainly show decreasing trend, and drought days of each level mainly show increasing trends, where decreasing trend of MI and increasing trends of middle and severe drought days of November are statistically significant （α=0.05）. （5）Stations of increasing and decreasing trends of annual drought days account for 60% and 40% respectively, where 11% stations are statistically significant over 0.1 level. Stations with statistically significant increasing trend of drought days of each levels are mostly in Guangxi Province, while stations with statistically significant decreasing trend of drought days are in Guangdong Province,indicating that the overall pattern that drought in Guangxi is more severe than in Gu

关 键 词：标准化前期降水指数(SAPI) 逐日气象干旱指数(DI) 气象干旱 华南 

分 类 号：P426.616[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]