基于投入产出生命周期模型的建筑业能耗及敏感性分析  

Evaluation and Sensitivity Analysis of the Energy Consumption of the Chinese Construction Sector Based on Input-Output LCA Model

作　　者：关军[1] 储成龙[1] 张智慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]清华大学建设管理系,北京100084

出　　处：《环境科学研究》2015年第2期297-303,共7页Research of Environmental Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70971075)

摘　　要：建设活动消耗了大量能源,研究建筑业能耗测算方法并分析其影响因素有助于建筑业的节能减排.采用投入产出生命周期评价模型测算建筑业能耗,分析建筑业能耗对部门间联系、部门能源强度和建筑业规模等因素变化的敏感性,提出部门对建筑业能耗的技术责任系数和结构责任系数,以判断部门在降低建筑业能耗中的责任.结果表明,2010年我国建筑业能耗为1.07×109t(以标准煤计);技术责任系数最大的部门是黑色金属冶炼及延压(0.489 8),其次是非金属矿物制品(0.479 8)和化工(0.211 8)等;除建筑业外,结构责任系数较大的部门包括非金属矿物制品(0.276 4)和黑色金属冶炼及延压(0.246 0)等;建筑业能耗对黑色金属冶炼及延压(0.243 8)和非金属矿物制品(0.203 4)等部门能源强度的变化最敏感.降低建筑业能耗应注重促进高能耗建材生产节能、强化建设活动科学管理、推广高性能低能耗材料应用、提高基础设施建设水平和深化住房市场化改革等方面.Given that construction activities consume large amounts of energy,quantitatively assessing the construction sector＇s energy consumption and analyzing its influencing factors are helpful for promoting energy saving and emission reduction in construction.This paper quantified the Chinese construction sector＇s energy consumption using an input-output life-cycle assessment model,and conducted a sensitivity analysis for energy consumption with respect to the changes in linkages between sectors,sector energy intensity and scale of construction.Technical responsibility coefficients and structural responsibility coefficients were defined to examine the related responsibility of given sectors on reducing the construction sector＇s energy consumption.The results showed that the Chinese construction sector＇s energy consumption in 2010 was 1.07 × 10^9 tons standard coal.The smelting and pressing of ferrous metals sector（0.4898） had the highest technical responsibility,followed by the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products（0.4798）.Except construction,the sectors of manufacture of non-metallic mineral products（0.2764） and smelting and pressing of ferrous metals（0.2460） shared the top structural responsibilities.The energy consumption was most sensitive to the change of energy intensity of the smelting and pressing of ferrous metals sector（0.4898） and the manufacture of non-metallic mineral products（0.4798）.Suggestions to promote energy saving in energy-intensive material production,to strengthen the scientific management of construction activities,to promote the application of high performance and low embodied energy materials,to improve the level of infrastructure construction and to deepen the housing market reform are proposed to reduce the construction sector＇s energy consumption.

关 键 词：建筑业 能源消耗 投入产出分析 敏感性分析 

分 类 号：X38[环境科学与工程—环境工程]