ARMA模型在地震电离层TEC异常探测中的应用  

Application of ARMA Model in Detecting Ionospheric TEC Anomaly Prior to Earthquake

作　　者：李磊[1] 张淑芳[2] 胡青[2] 尹淑慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学物理系,大连市凌海路1号116026 [2]大连海事大学信息科学技术学院,大连市凌海路1号116026

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2015年第1期62-66,共5页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：国家863计划(2009AA12Z312);国家自然科学基金(60972091);中央高校基本科研业务费(3132015147;2011QN155)

摘　　要：基于IGS数据分析中心提供的全球电离层TEC数据,利用时间序列分析理论中的ARMA模型对2008-05-12汶川Ms8.0地震的电离层TEC资料进行处理,将ARMA模型TEC预报值作为电离层TEC背景参考值,对地震前后的电离层TEC进行异常探测研究。结果表明,在取得了与其他研究方法结果基本一致的基础上,新发现震前第13d、12d、10d、7d也存在电离层TEC异常扰动现象。说明以全球电离层TEC数据为基础,利用ARMA模型同样能有效探测到震前电离层TEC异常扰动现象,并达到较高精度。In this paper,we use ionospheric TEC data provided by International GPS Service（IGS）tracking stations to examine the ionospheric variations during the Ms8.0 Wenchuan earthquake that occurred on May 12,2008,in China.In data processing,the ARMA model based on the theory of time series is adopted,and the predicted TEC of ARMA model is regard as the background reference value of TEC in the ionosphere.Comparing the results with the previous conclusion,we also found the anomalous ionospheric disturbances 13 d,12d,10 dand 7dbefore the earthquake.The results indicate that the establishment of the ARMA model is reasonable and reliable,and it also can achieve high accuracy in the detection of the ionospheric TEC anomalies prior to earthquake effectively,based on the data derived from IGS.

关 键 词：ARMA模型 电离层 总电子含量 地震 

分 类 号：P228.42[天文地球—大地测量学与测量工程]