榆树沟定点形变受气象因素影响分析及典型震例  

The Study on Yushugou Fixed Deformation Affected by Meteorological Factors and Typlcal Earthquake Examples

作　　者：邢喜民[1] 孙吉泽[1] 张治广[1] 

机构地区：[1]新疆维吾尔自治区地震局,乌鲁木齐市科学二街830011

出　　处：《大地测量与地球动力学》2015年第1期162-166,共5页Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics

基　　金：新疆维吾尔自治区地震局基金(201104);新疆维吾尔自治区青年自然科学基金(2014211B39)

摘　　要：以榆树沟定点形变数据为因变量,以气象因素为自变量进行相关、回归计算,得到各测项的回归方程,通过对回归残差的分析,总结典型震例。研究结果显示:1)地温是榆树沟定点形变(除水管NS向)年变信息的主要影响因素,地温与观测值之间呈现准线性关系;2)气温是榆树沟水管仪NS向年变信息的主要影响因素,气温与观测值之间呈现准线性关系;3)金属摆两分向观测数据与地温负相关;4)水管仪NE、EW向及伸缩仪的3个分向与地温正相关;5)水管仪NS向与气温具有高度正相关性,与气压也具一定负相关性;6)伸缩仪NE向除与地温高度正相关外,与气温也具有一定的正相关性;7)回归分析能在一定程度上剔除气象因素的影响,有助于对地震异常的识别。This paper takes extensometer and horizontal pendulum data in Yushugou as dependent variables and meteorological factors as independent variables to do correlation and regression analysis.The best regression equation is confirmed according to regression testing and comparing the various factors.Through the analysis of the regression residuals,the paper summarizes typical earthquake examples.Our research supports the following results：1）Earth temperature is the main impact factor in the annual change of Yushugou fixed deformation（except pipe tilt meter NS）showing aquasi-linear relationship;2）The air temperature is the main impact factor in the annual change of Yushugou pipe tilt meter NS,showing aquasi-linear relationship;3）Two components of horizontal pendulum to observation data associated with geothermal show a highly negative linear relationship;4）NE,EW of pipe tilt meter and three components of extensimeter show a highly positive correlation with the earth temperature;5）NS of pipe tilt meter has a high positive correlation with air temperature and a negative correlationwith air pressure;6）NE of extensimeter has positive correlation with earth temperature and air temperature;7）Regression analysis can eliminate some influence of meteorological factors,helps us to recognize the seismic anomalies.

关 键 词：回归分析 定点形变 相关系数 回归残差 中短期异常 

分 类 号：P315.7[天文地球—地震学]