中国“十三五”及中长期电力需求研究  

Research on Electricity Demand of China during the 13^(th) Five-Year Plan and Med-Term- & Long-Term Periods

作　　者：单葆国[1] 韩新阳[1] 谭显东[1] 王永培[1] 郑雅楠[1] 

机构地区：[1]国网能源研究院,北京102209

出　　处：《中国电力》2015年第1期6-10,14,共6页Electric Power

摘　　要：合理预测"十三五"及中长期全国和各区域电力需求增长趋势,对科学编制"十三五"及中长期电力发展规划,促进电力工业与国民经济协调发展具有重要意义。设计了经济与电力需求增长的3个可能情景,通过构建的经济与电力需求预测模型体系,预测了各情景下2020和2030年全国及各区域的电力需求。研究表明:"十三五"及中长期中国电力需求增长空间仍然较大,但增速将在2020年以后明显降低,"三华"地区作为全国负荷中心的地位一直不变。预计2020年全国全社会用电量达到7.6万亿~8.4万亿k W·h,最大负荷达到12.7亿~14.1亿k W,"三华"地区用电比重为63.7%~65.8%;2030年,全国全社会用电量达到10.0万亿~11.8万亿k W·h,最大负荷达到17.1亿~20.0亿k W,"三华"地区用电比重为61.5%~63.2%。It is of great signifieancc to properly determine the forecasts ahout the national and local power demand trends in tte 13^th Five-Year Plan as well as the med-term and long-term periods. In this paper, three scenarios of economic and electricity demand growth are constructed to forecast the national and local power demands by 2020 and 2030 hased on the established economy and electricity demand forecasting model. The results show that during these periods, China＇s electricity demand will still have strong growth potentials, but the growth rate will decrease greatly after 2020. The North China, Central China and East China will always take the major role in electrieity demand. By 2020, the total demand for electricity will be about 7 649 to 8 447 TWh with the peak load of 1 271 to 1 410 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 63.7%-65.8% ; by 2030, the total demand will be about 1 003 to 1 175 TWh with the peak load of 1 708 to 2 002 GW and the proportion of the electricity demand in North China, Central China and East China accounting for 61.5%-63.2%.

关 键 词：电网 “十三五” 中长期 电力需求 规划 

分 类 号：F426.61[经济管理—产业经济]