基于可靠度的氯盐侵蚀下输电线路基础耐久性寿命预测  

Reliability-Based Durable Life Prediction for Transmission Line Foundation under Chlorine Salt Erosion

作　　者：安利强[1] 杨勃[1] 魏鹏[2] 曹蒙[1] 王璋奇[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学能源动力与机械工程学院,河北省保定市071003 [2]西北电力设计院,西安市710075

出　　处：《电力建设》2015年第2期27-33,共7页Electric Power Construction

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(14ZD33);国家电网公司科技项目(输电线路盐渍土及冻土设计关键技术研究);河北省自然科学基金项目(E2013502291)~~

摘　　要：以Fick第二定律为理论基础,建立了氯盐侵蚀下输电线路基础受Cl-扩散侵蚀作用的耐久性寿命预测模型。采用概率方法建立了基础耐久性寿命极限状态方程,通过Nataf变换将各基本随机变量变换为独立标准正态变量,基于二阶可靠度方法(second order reliability method,SORM),采用Breitung方法实现了指定可靠度下基础耐久性寿命计算。以±800 kV哈密南—郑州直流特高压工程为背景,研究了模型中基础保护层厚度、水胶比、临界Cl-浓度、养护时间和年平均气温等变量的统计参数对基础耐久性失效概率分布规律的影响。研究表明,概率方法求得的基础耐久性寿命可靠度指标满足规范中最小可靠度指标为1.5的要求,为线路基础的耐久性设计及寿命预测提供依据。A durable life prediction model was constructed for transmission line foundation under Cl^- diffusion erosion, based on the Fick＇s Second Law. Then the durable life limit-state equation of foundation was established with using probabilistic method, physical random variables were transformed to independent standard normal variables with using the Nataf model, and the target reliability calculation of durable life with Breitung＇s formulations was achieved, based on Second Order Reliability Method （SORM）. Finally, taking ±800 kV UHV DC transmission lines from south of Hami to Zhengzhou as background, this paper studied the influence of statistical parameters on the durability failure probability distribution of foundation, such as protective layer thickness, water-binder ratio, critical Cl^- concentration, curing time, annual average temperature and so on. The results show that the reliability index of foundation＇s durable life calculated by probabilistic method can satisfy the minimum reliability index requirement of 1.5, which can provide a basis for the design of durability and the durable life prediction in transmission lines foundation engineering.

关 键 词：氯盐侵蚀 输电线路基础 耐久性寿命预测 概率方法 二阶可靠度方法 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]