中国城镇化进程中土地资源尾效的空间分异研究  

Study on the Spatial Differentiation of the Growth Drag Effects of Land Resource in China's Urbanization

作　　者：张琳[1] 许晶[1] 王亚辉[1] 李娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理与经济学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2014年第6期30-36,共7页China Land Science

基　　金：教育部人文社科项目(12YJC790267)

摘　　要：研究目的:基于两种发展情景假设,对中国城镇化过程中土地资源尾效的全局和局部空间关联性进行研究,以期揭示土地资源稀缺对城镇化发展制约的空间分布规律,并为土地资源的宏观调控提供参考。研究方法:采用计量经济学和空间分析方法对中国31个省、市、自治区土地资源尾效的空间分异进行实证研究。研究结果:从全局空间分析来看,中国31个省、市、自治区的土地资源稀缺对城镇化进程的阻力具有较好的空间结构性、关联性和依赖性,呈现出"东高西低"的非均衡性分布格局。这说明总体上中国东部地区土地资源尾效高于中、西部地区。从局部空间分析来看,城镇化进程中土地资源尾效表现出的局部空间差异性和集聚性较为显著,即尾效高值集聚的地区相对来说经济比较发达,而尾效低值集聚的地区相对来说经济较为落后;从两种不同的发展情景假定来看,情景2(土地资源数量有一定增长)可以缓解情景1(土地资源数量保持不变)假定下部分省、市、自治区土地资源对城镇化进程的阻力。研究结论:将土地资源尾效研究与空间分析方法相结合可以揭示出土地资源稀缺制约城镇化发展的空间分异特征及规律。The purpose of the study is to analyze the overall and locally spatial correlation of the growth drag effect of land resource in the process of urbanization in the 31 Provinces of China, which was based on two kinds of development scenarios assumption, so that we can reveal the trend of spatial distribution tendency of land resource growth drag effects in the process of urbanization and provide a reference for macro-control of land use in China. Econometric analysis method and spatial analysis was employed to study the spatial differentiation of land resource growth drag effect. Resuhs show that one obvious consequence is that the analysis has a strong spatial con＇elation and significant neighbor effects in the overall spatial analysis. Furthermore, it has a common feature of unbalanc, ed distribution patterns, i.e., the east has higher and the west has lower effect. Growth resistance of China＇ s urbanization driven by land resource in eastern region is greater than the central and western regions. Meanwhile, if from the perspective of local spatial analysis, the growth resistance of China＇ s urbanization that affected by land resource shows also obvious locally spatial differences. The area of higher growth drag effect is relatively more developed, while the lower area is comparatively underdeveloped. From two different development scenarios, scenario II （the number of land resource has a certain growth） can relieve the scenario I （the number of land resource remain the same） under the assumption of some provinces and cities in China meeting the resistance of land resource during urbanization. The paper concludes that we can reveal the status and spatial-temporal characteristics of growth drag effects of land resource through combining the study of land resource growth drag with spatial analysis.

关 键 词：土地利用 城镇化 尾效 空间分析 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]