基于指标定权灰色聚类的公路平交口安全评价  

A Safety Evaluation Method for Highway Intersections Using Weighted Gray Cluster

作　　者：葛兴 姜波 

机构地区：[1]湖州市规划局,浙江湖州313000 [2]浙江南浔经济开发区,浙江湖州313000

出　　处：《交通信息与安全》2014年第6期159-165,共7页Journal of Transport Information and Safety

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(批准号:50522207)资助

摘　　要：公路平面交叉口是公路网的重要组成部分,同时也是交通事故的"多发源",掌握交叉口的安全状况具有重要的意义。结合国内外的研究,克服指标选择的片面性,考虑交叉口内冲突发生的频率、严重程度、单车事故发生几率等多种因素,提出了基于冲突的交叉口安全评价指标体系,并给出了获取各指标的详细方法。利用vague集方法,确定了各指标权重;提出定权灰色聚类评价方法,对指标体系进行聚类分析,把交叉口安全水平分为4级(A^D级),对公路平面交叉口的安全性进行快速定量评价。基于大量的实际调查,结合20个公路平交口的调查数据进行了实例应用,并与传统方法进行对比,结果表明,交叉口安全水平等级评价符合交叉口实际的安全状态。Intersection is an important part of highway road network, as well as the location of frequent accidents. After a review of previous studies, the following indices are proposed to evaluate traffic safety, including conflict severity, conflict frequency and the probability for single-vehicle accident. The method for quantifying each index is also described. The vague set method is used to determine the weight of each index. A gray cluster evaluation method with fixed weight is proposed, and the safety performance level of highway intersections is classified into four levels from A to D. Finally, based on the data from twenty intersections, the weighted gray clustering method is tested and then compared with the traditional method. The study results show that the estimated levels of safety performance for the intersections are con- sistent with what is observed in reality.

关 键 词：交通安全 安全评价 交通冲突技术 定权灰色聚类 公路平交口 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]