业绩快报披露影响了分析师预测吗  

Does the Disclosure of Earnings Preannouncement Affect Analyst 's Forecasts

作　　者：陈翔宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学管理学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《山西财经大学学报》2015年第3期102-114,共13页Journal of Shanxi University of Finance and Economics

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目(12JJD790030);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LQ14G020002)

摘　　要：以2004—2013年度A股上市公司为样本，研究了业绩快报披露对分析师预测的影响。研究发现，相对于未披露业绩快报的公司，披露业绩快报的公司有着更多的分析师跟踪和分析师预测修正，分析师预测的质量也更高；相对于自愿披露业绩快报的公司，强制披露业绩快报的公司有着更多的分析师跟踪和分析师预测修正，分析师预测的质量也更高。这一研究拓展了既有的上市公司业绩预测文献，为强制性业绩快报披露制度提供了经验证据支持，也为上市公司监管机构提供了优化披露制度的建议。Based on China＇s A-share companies＇ data from 2004 to 2013, this paper investigates the influences of Earnings Prean- nouncement on analysts＇ forecast. We find that relative to the companies without disclosing Earnings Preannouncement, the disclosing companies have more analyst following, more forecast revisions and higher quality of analysts＇ forecast. Further, we divide the disclosure of Earnings Preannouncement into voluntary disclosure and mandatory disclosure, the results indicate that relative to the companies who vol- untarily disclose the Earnings Preannouncement, the companies with mandatory disclosure have more analyst following, more forecast revi- sions, and higher quality of analysts＇ forecast. This study enriches the literatures in earnings forecast of listed companies, supports the reg- ulation of mandatory disclosure on Earnings Preannouncement with empirical proof, and also provides policy recommendations for the se- curities regulators to improve the Earnings Preannouncement regulation.

关 键 词：业绩快报 强制披露 自愿披露 分析师预测 

分 类 号：F230[经济管理—会计学]