北京市出口需求对内需增长影响的实证分析  

The Empirical Analysis on Export Demands' Impacts on Enhancing Domestic Demands in Beijing

作　　者：郎丽华[1] 刘新宇[1] 万月[1] 

机构地区：[1]首都经济贸易大学经济学院,北京100070

出　　处：《北京工商大学学报（社会科学版）》2015年第2期36-47,共12页JOURNAL OF BEIJING TECHNOLOGY AND BUSINESS UNIVERSITY:SOCIAL SCIENCES

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重大项目"正确处理经济平稳较快发展;调整经济结构;管理通胀预期的关系研究"(12&ZD038);北京市教育委员会创新团队项目"北京经济结构调整与外贸发展研究"(IDHT20130522);首都经济贸易大学研究生科技创新重点项目"北京市外贸结构调整与内需规模波动的影响分析"(2013CUEB013)

摘　　要：实现对外经贸发展水平的进一步提升,是北京市调整经济结构、转变经济发展方式的战略方向。利用1986—2012年北京市出口需求与消费、投资需求的相关数据,通过VAR模型探讨了出口需求变化与内需变化之间的因果关系,在此基础上,建立了实证模型估算其影响效应。结果表明:北京市出口需求变化影响内需增长,主要表现为出口需求的变化影响居民最终消费需求,出口需求每增加1%,居民最终消费支出水平提高0.029 8%;另外,汇率、对外开放政策对于北京市内需的扩大有积极正向的影响。最后,文章探索了调整出口需求和扩大内需的有效方式,为北京市加快转变经济发展方式、实现经济结构战略性调整提供了政策建议。To enhance the level of foreign trade is an effective way and strategic direction as to Beijing＇s adjustment of eco- nomic structure and transformation of economic developing mode. Based on the related data from 1986 to 2012, this paper estab- lished a VAR Model to discover the causal relationship between the changes in export demands and domestic demands in Beijing. Following the above study, another empirical model was established to quantify their impacts. The results showed that： the change of export demands affected the domestic demands growth, especially on residential consumption demands. Each 1% increase in export volume led to a O. 029 8% increase in residential consumption expenditures; exchange rate and the open-door policy had positive effects on enhancing domestic demands. This paper also aimed to explore the effective way of enhancing domestic demand- sand adjusting the structure of export demands. Eventually, this paper proposed some practical advice to accelerate the transfor- mation of Beijing economic developing mode as well as to achieve the strategic economic restructuring.

关 键 词：出口需求 内需增长 消费需求 VAR模型 

分 类 号：F741.1[经济管理—国际贸易]