利用初育年龄测度终身生育率的探索  

The Exploration of Measuring CFR based on the Mean Childbearing Age at First Birth

作　　者：王亚楠[1] 钟甫宁[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院 [2]南京农业大学中国粮食安全中心,江苏南京210095

出　　处：《人口学刊》2015年第2期5-14,共10页Population Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金国际(地区)合作与交流项目:人口变化;城乡人口流动和中国的农业与农村发展(71361140370);国家社科基金重大项目:完善国家粮食安全保障体系研究(14ZDA038);江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：理论上终身生育率是衡量妇女生育水平的理想指标，但由于时滞问题而难以运用；实践中采用的总和生育率用不同年龄妇女生育率加总进行替代，虽然简便易行，却存在一定偏差。与现有的利用总和生育率推算终身生育率的研究有别，本文尝试利用真实育龄妇女队列的初育年龄测度终身生育率。依据1950—2011年育龄妇女的年龄别生育率数据，发现初育年龄与终身生育率之间具有显著的负相关关系并且具有较好的拟合效果。这表明，应用初育年龄可以及时提供妇女终身生育率的可靠信患。The completed fertility rate （CFR）is the ideal indicator measuring fertility level, but difficult to use due to time lag. The measurement of total fertility rate （TFR） commonly used is substituting fertility rates of women at different age in a year for the total fertility rate of a woman in whole life, though easy to collect, but may be biased. There have been several attempts to estimate CFR based on TFR statistics. As an alternative, this paper tries to measure CFR based on the mean childbearing age at first birth （MAC 1 ）, using the data of the age specific fertility rate for the 1950-2011 time period. The conclusion is that CFR and MAC1 have significant negative relationship, and the simulated values of CFR measured by MAC1 are fitting with the true values well. It means, this approach may provide reliable information of real fertility lev- el directly without time lag.

关 键 词：初育年龄 终身生育率 总和生育率 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]