出生性别比间接估计方法  

Indirect Estimation of Sex Ratio at Birth

作　　者：陶涛[1] 杨凡[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心,北京100872

出　　处：《人口学刊》2015年第2期68-76,共9页Population Journal

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目:妇女生命历程对男孩偏好的影响研究(13CRK032)

摘　　要：由于出生性别比数据来源多样,根据不同数据来源计算出的指标值差异较大,且因为出生性别比长期受到监测和考核的影响,所以数据较为敏感,真实性常常受到质疑。本文利用怀孕性别比、流引产性别比和出生性别比之间存在的内在逻辑关系建立三者的数量关系,从而能够利用病例性质而非统计报表性质的流引产性别比来间接估计出生性别比水平,为估计出生性别比的真实水平提供了一种新的思路。The sex ratio at birth （the ratio of male to female births） varies according to different sources, and there is considerable variability in the terms of the index values calculated by those diverse data. More- over, interfered by political monitoring and appraisal system over a long period of time, the authenticity of the data has been widely questioned. In this article, we aim to utilize the internal logical relations among sex ratio at pregnant and sex ratio in spontaneous abortions and sex ratio at birth, and attempt to establish the relationship between the three based on a large scale of historical data. We believe this new perspective which eliminates the limitation of statistical reports in the past could provide a reliable method to evaluate the true level of sex ratio at birth.

关 键 词：出生性别比 间接估计 流引产性别比 

分 类 号：C921.2[社会学—人口学]