基于总体冲突概率和三维布朗运动的冲突探测算法  

Conflict Detection Algorithm Based on Overall Conflict Probability and Three Dimensional Brownian Motion

作　　者：石磊[1,2] 吴仁彪[1] 黄晓晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学智能信号与图像处理天津市重点实验室,天津300300 [2]天津大学电子信息工程学院,天津300072

出　　处：《电子与信息学报》2015年第2期360-366,共7页Journal of Electronics & Information Technology

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划(2011BAH24B12);国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民航局联合资助项目(U1233109)资助课题

摘　　要：随着空中交通流量的增加,冲突探测在空中交通管理系统中的作用越来越重要。该文提出了一种概率型冲突探测算法,计算向前看时间内的总体冲突概率。基于飞机3维布朗运动模型,飞机的预测航迹可以表示为确定航迹外加布朗运动扰动。对于两飞机速度为常值的运动情况,冲突概率可以表示为做布朗运动的飞机进入运动的飞机保护区的概率,使用坐标变换和Bachelier-Levy定理进行估计;对于两飞机运动为非匀速运动情况,预测航迹则可以使用足够多速度为分段常值的片段来近似,计算出每一片段内的冲突概率,并给出了向前看时间内总体冲突概率的上下界。与蒙特卡罗仿真结果比较,算法满足冲突探测精度要求,对及时发现冲突和冲突解决具有重要意义。With the increasing of the air traffic flow, conflict detection plays an increasingly important role in air traffic management system. A probabilistic conflict detection algorithm is proposed. Overall conflict probability in look-ahead time is calculated. The aircraft predicted trajectory is expressed as deterministic trajectory plus a Brownian motion perturbation. For the case of constant aircraft speed, conflict probability is expressed as the probability of an aircraft with Brownian motion perturbation entering a time-varying moving protection zone, the probability is approximated using coordinate transformation and Bachelier-Levy theorem. For the case of aircraft with non-constant speed, predicted trajectory can be approximated by a large enough number of constant speed segments. Conflict probability of each segment is calculated and the overall conflict probability bounds in look-ahead time are given. Compared with Monte Carlo simulations, the proposed algorithm is accurate for conflict detection and it is useful to detect and avoid conflicts in air traffic management system.

关 键 词：空中交通管理系统 总体冲突概率 3维布朗运动 坐标变换 Bachelier-Levy定理 

分 类 号：TP391[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]