不确定条件下的贴现理论与递减贴现率  

Discount theory and decreasing discount rate in uncertainty

作　　者：刘昌义[1] 何为[2] 

机构地区：[1]国家气候中心,北京100081 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《经济学家》2015年第3期65-73,共9页Economist

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题"IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响"(2012BAC20B05)

摘　　要：经典的成本收益分析方法采用拉姆齐公式决定贴现率,但这一研究范式只适用于确定增长条件。在不确定条件下,经济学家根据期望净现值方法和延伸的拉姆齐规则推导出递减的贴现率期限结构,并将其应用于减缓气候变化的成本收益分析。相比传统的市场利率,采用递减贴现率大大提高了气候损失和碳的社会成本,从而更倾向于早期减排。对长期性资源与环境项目,例如减缓和适应气候变化、环境污染治理,采用递减贴现率进行成本收益评估更符合可持续发展的内涵和要求。Classical cost-returns analysis method adopts Ramsey Formula to determine discount rate, but that research paradigm only applies to certain growth condition. Under uncertain conditions, economists derivate the term structure of decreasing discount rate according to expected net present value method and extended Ramsey Rule, and apply it to the analysis on cost and returns to mitigate climate changes. Compared with traditional market rates, decreasing discount rate improves climate loss and social cost of carbon greatly, and it tends to decrease emission at the early stage. As for the long-term resource and environment project, such as mitigating and adapting to climate changes and environment pollution governance, adopting decreasing discount rate to evaluate cost and returns would better meet the connotation and requirement of consistent development.

关 键 词：贴现 递减贴现率 不确定性 气候变化 成本收益分析 

分 类 号：F019[经济管理—政治经济学]