基于RBF的安徽省资源环境压力动态预警  

Early-warning of Resource and Environment Pressure in Anhui Province Based on RBF

作　　者：张雅洁[1] 张杰[1] 卞晓峰[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北师范大学地理与环境科学学院,兰州730070

出　　处：《中国农学通报》2015年第1期174-179,共6页Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41061017)

摘　　要：基于1996—2011年安徽省资源环境的相关数据,从资源压力、环境压力2个方面构建安徽省资源环境压力预警指标体系。运用熵权法测算资源环境压力指数,进而运用RBF模型对1996—2011年安徽省资源环境压力演变趋势进行模拟预测,并结合预警指数和警度标准对1996—2011年安徽省资源环境压力预警状况进行分析,旨在为安徽省社会经济与资源环境和谐发展提供参考,使社会经济健康、快速、可持续的发展。结果表明:RBF模型有较高的模拟仿真精度,能够较好地拟合1996—2011年安徽省资源压力、环境压力和资源环境压力指数的发展趋势。安徽省资源压力预警指数总体呈现波动上升趋势,警度由"中警"上升到"巨警"。环境压力指数在1996—2011年一直呈现上升趋势,其预警指数在2004年以前基本处于"中警"格局,但2004年以来,这一指数明显增大,警度由"中警"逐步转变为"重警"和"巨警"状态。可得出结论,影响安徽省资源环境压力的主要因素包括人均用电量、人均用水量、自然灾害受灾面积比重、能源消费标煤总量、工业废气排放量、固体废弃物排放量等,是今后调控的重点。Based on the related data of resource and environment pressure in Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011, this paper constructed an early-warning index of resource and environment pressure system for Anhui Province from two aspects： resource pressure and environment pressure. The entropy weight method was used to measure index of resources and environment pressure, and then RBF model was used to make a prediction for resource and environment pressure development trend of Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011, at last, the authors made a warning analysis of the resource and environment pressure of the Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011 according to the early-warning index and warning degree standards. Based on the analysis, the results showed that： RBF model had a relatively high simulation accuracy, which could well fit the resources and environment pressure system＇s development trends of Anhui Province from 1996 to 2011. The early-warning index of the resource pressure system showed an upward trend with fluctuations from 1996 to 2011, and the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to giant alarm. As for the environment system, since 2005, the warning degree rose from moderate alarm to heavy alarm and giant alarm. The main factors that influence there source and environment pressure of Anhui Province include per capita electricity consumption, water consumption per capita, the proportion of natural disaster- affected area, the total energy consumption,industrial waste gas emissions and solid waste emissions, they are the focus of resource and environment pressure regulation in the future.

关 键 词：资源环境压力 预警 RBF 安徽省 

分 类 号：X821[环境科学与工程—环境工程]