公交运营模式选择模型及其灵敏度分析  

A Selection Model of Public Transit Operation Mode and Its Sensitivity Analysis

作　　者：邱丰[1] 李文权[1] 谢秋峰[1] 张健[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,南京210096

出　　处：《武汉理工大学学报（交通科学与工程版）》2015年第1期82-87,共6页Journal of Wuhan University of Technology（Transportation Science & Engineering）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目资助(批准号:50978057)

摘　　要：针对定线定点和定线不定点两种公交运营模式的特点,提出了一种基于交通需求的公交运营模式选择模型.该模型从出行者出行时间的角度对公交服务质量进行了量化分析,在考虑交通需求的前提下对两种模式下出行者步行时间、等待时间和车上时间的期望值分别进行分析计算.对服务范围长宽比、步行时间期望值权重系数和客流系数进行了模型灵敏度分析,得到两种模式等效时的关键交通需求密度区间为106~125人/（km2·h-1）.实际应用时,当交通需求密度低于关键交通需求密度时,应当采用定线不定点运营模式;反之,则采用定线定点运营模式.According to the characteristics of fixed-route transit and fixed-route demand reponsive transit,a selection model of public transit operation mode based on traffic demand is proposed.In this model,the service quality provided by public transit is represented by the utility function from the view of travel time,and expected value of the walking time,waiting time and riding time of travellers are analysed and calculated.Then sensitivity analyses of length/width ratios of service area,weight of walking time and coefficient of travellers are investigated and our finding shows that the critical demands are in the range from 106 to 125p/km2/h.In pratical application,fixed-route demand reponsive transit performs better when demand density is lower than critical demand densities;otherwise,fixedroute transit is more suitable.

关 键 词：公交运营模式 定线定点运营 定线不定点运营 交通需求密度 

分 类 号：U491.1[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]