新疆极端降水事件时空变化特征研究  

Temporal and Spatial Variation of Extreme Precipitation Event in Xinjiang

作　　者：李佳秀[1,2] 徐长春[1,2] 王晓[3] 高沈瞳 赵杰[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [2]新疆大学资源与环境科学学院,新疆乌鲁木齐830046 [3]四川民族学院人事处,四川康定626001

出　　处：《人民黄河》2015年第2期33-37,共5页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41305125;U1203281);荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室开放课题(G2013-02-02);新疆大学绿洲生态教育部重点实验室开放课题(XJDX0206-2011-02)

摘　　要：基于新疆1960—2011年的日降水量数据,选取持续干燥指数、持续湿润指数、年总降水量、强降水天数、强降水量、1 d最大降水量、5 d最大降水量和普通日降水强度8个极端降水指标,采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall突变检验及主成分分析法研究新疆极端降水的时空分布特征及演变趋势。结果表明:时间变化上,新疆极端降水的持续湿润指数均呈上升趋势,持续干燥指数呈下降趋势,表明新疆降水量总体呈增加趋势;空间变化上,南疆、北疆极端降水指标的年际变化表现出明显差异,北疆湿润指数大、年际变化率大,南疆湿润指数小、年际变化率小;极端降水指标基本上在1986年、1987年发生突变,各指标突变前后的变化率存在明显差异;时间上的主成分分析表明降水量整体增加,干燥程度下降;空间上的主成分分析表明,北疆降水量多于南疆,南疆较北疆干旱。Based on the daily precipitation data from 1960 to 2011 years in Xinjiang,it selected 8 extreme precipitation indices such as con-tinuous dry index,continuous humidity index,annual total precipitation,heavy rain days,the strong rainfall,1-day maximum precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation,and ordinary day precipitation intensity,used the linear trend rate,Mann-Kendall mutation test and principal component analysis （PCA）to study the temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation. The results show that as the time change, the humidity index of extreme precipitation is increasing,while the dry index is declining. It shows that the precipitation increases totally in Xinjiang;as the space change,the inter-annual variability of extreme precipitation indices show an obvious difference between the southern region and the northern region,the humidity index and the inter-annual variation rate of the northern region are larger than that of the south-ern region;the Mann-Kendall mutation test results show most of the indices have a mutation in the 1986 or 1987 year,each index has a sig-nificant difference before and after the mutation;the principal component analysis results indicate that,as the time change,the precipitation increases totally and the dry degree is declining;as the space change,the precipitation is more in the northern region than in the southern re-gion,so the southern region is drier than the northern region.

关 键 词：极端降水事件 突变检验 主成分分析 湿润指数 干燥指数 

分 类 号：P426.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]