多态不确定条件下的城市供水调度模型研究  

Study of urban water supply dispatch model under polymorphic uncertainty condition

作　　者：罗伟伟[1,2] 邵东国[2] 张建国[1] 何思聪[2] 

机构地区：[1]军事经济学院基础部,湖北武汉430035 [2]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《人民长江》2015年第3期60-64,共5页Yangtze River

基　　金：国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项项目(2012ZX07205005);国家自然科学基金项目(51379150)

摘　　要：针对城市多水源供水调度系统中存在的不确定性和复杂性问题,将基于可信性理论的模糊规划与区间规划融入两阶段随机规划框架中,构建了基于可信性约束的区间两阶段随机规划的城市供水调度优化模型。该模型用区间数、随机变量和模糊参数等形式,有效表征了系统目标函数和约束中存在的多态不确定性,模拟了不确定条件下的城市供水调度过程,并对随机过程产生的风险进行了追索。通过模型运算,得到不同可信度水平下的稳定区间解,可为城市供水管理者提供不同情景下的决策方案,帮助其规避供水缺水风险。Aiming at the uncertainty and complexity existed in urban multi- sources water supply dispatch system,the fuzzy programming and interval programming of credibility theory are integrated in two- stage stochastic programming frame,and the two- stage stochastic programming optimal urban water supply dispatch model is developed based on credibility constraint. The uncertainties in the objective function and constraint can be expressed by interval number,stochastic variables and fuzzy parameters of the model,so as to simulate the urban water supply process under uncertain condition,and the risk in the stochastic process is searched for. The stable interval solutions under different credibility are obtained through model computation,which can provide schemes for decision- makers and avoid the water shortage risk.

关 键 词：区间两阶段随机方法 可信性理论 模糊规划 城市供水调度模型 

分 类 号：TV211[水利工程—水文学及水资源]