气候变暖情境下华山松大小蠹在中国的潜在分布区预测  

Prediction of the Potential Distribution of Dendroctonus armandi in China

作　　者：王茹琳 姜淦 王闫利 林姗 沈沾红 

机构地区：[1]四川省农村经济综合信息中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《四川林业科技》2015年第1期73-78,共6页Journal of Sichuan Forestry Science and Technology

摘　　要：华山松大小蠹是我国特有害虫,主要危害华山松,每年给我国林产业造成严重的经济损失。因此,搞清楚华山松大小蠹在中国的潜在分布对有效控制其扩散蔓延有重要的指导意义。本研究基于最大熵算法的生态位模型Max Ent和地理信息系统软件Divagis对华山松大小蠹进行适生区分析及预测,用ROC曲线对预测模型和结果进行了评估,用刀切(Jackknife)法分析了影响华山松大小蠹的重要因子。结果表明:华山松大小蠹在我国适生范围比较集中;高风险区主要分布在陕西南部、四川东北部和甘肃东南部3省交界地区,对华山松大小蠹发生具有重要影响的是最干季度的平均温度;随着全球气候的变化,在温室气体A1b排放情景下,华山松大小蠹在2050年的预测分布结果显示高风险区范围变化不大,中风险区范围有所转移;A2a和B2a排放情景下,高风险区范围有所变化,湖北和四川两省分布面积增大,中风险区范围变化不大。Dendroctonus armandi is a destructive insect of Pinus armandi loss to the forest industry in China every year. Determination of the pote Dendroctonus armandi is an important factor for effectively controlling th , and causes a serious economic ntial geographical distribution of e spreading of this pest. In this study, niche model MaxEnt and Divagis were applied to analyze ande predict the suitable distribution area of Dendroctonus armandi, ROC was used to evaluate the prediction model and the prediction results, and Jackknife analysis was made on the most important environmental factors affecting the occurrence of Den- droctonus armandi. The results showed that Dendroctonus armandi had a concentrated distribution area in China, and the pest was mainly distributed in the southern part of Shanxi province, the northeasten of Sichuan province and the sotheasten of Gansu province, and the most important environmental factors af- fecting the occurrence of Dendroctonus armandi was the mean temperature of the driest quarter. As the global climate changes, the potential distribution range of Dendroctonus armandi will vary according to different emission scenarios. With greenhouse gases under the A1 b emissions scenario, by the year 2050, the high-risk areas will not change significantly, the medium-risk areas will transfer to other places; while under A2a and B2a emission scenarios, the potential distribution of Dendroctonus armandi will have a tendency to expand in Sichuan and Hubei provinces, but the medium-risk areas will not change significantly.

关 键 词：华山松大小蠹 MAXENT 适生性分布 影响因子 

分 类 号：S763[农业科学—森林保护学]