突发事件情景演化及关键要素提取方法  

Emergency scenario evolution and extraction method of key elements

作　　者：盛勇[1,2] 孙庆云[2] 王永明[2] 

机构地区：[1]常州大学环境与安全工程学院,江苏常州213164 [2]中国安全生产科学研究院公共安全研究所,北京100012

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2015年第1期17-21,共5页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71103162;91024031;91324020);国家"十二五"科技支撑计划课题项目(2012BAK27B01);中国安全生产科学研究院基本科研项目(2014JBKY02)

摘　　要：针对突发事件应急处置难度大的特点,突发事件应急管理模式必须向"情景-应对"转变。从系统复杂性、开放式预先设想以及序贯性三个主要原则的角度理解突发事件情景演化的机理,构建了突发事件情景演化系统模型,并以此为基础设计了突发事件情景网络关键要素的提取方法。该方法以危险源形成、突发事件演化以及应急响应三方面主要内容为情景网络的主体,以三方面主要内容所涉及的影响因素为分支,适当的选取情景网络关键要素并将关键要素分为四类。该方法的提出弥补了情景网络关键要素提取方法理论的空白,为突发事件情景构建提供了理论支持。According to the characteristics of difficult in emergency disposal, the emergency management mode must be converted to ＆quot;scenario-response＆quot;. The system model of emergency scenario was established based on un-derstanding the evolution mechanism of emergency scenario from three main principles, namely, the system com-plexity, future-open thinking and sequential property. On this basis, the extraction method of key elements in e-mergency scenario network was designed. Taking the main contents of three aspects, including hazard source formula-tion, emergency evolution and emergency response, as the main body of scenario network, and taking the involved in-fluence factors of the above three aspects as branch, the key elements of scenario network were extracted appropriately and divided into four categories. The method compensates the blank in the theory about extraction method of key ele-ments in scenario network, and provides theoretical support for the emergency scenario construction.

关 键 词：突发事件 情景 演化 关键要素 提取 

分 类 号：X92[环境科学与工程—安全科学]